Saturday, August 31, 2024

Vegas 2024 Trip

This year, my Vegas trip was going to be different. Unlike the recent past, when I had targeted the WSOP (World Series Of Poker) in June or July for high buy-in "shot taking", I decided to go for a more relaxed, laid back approach. It would be a solo trip taken on weekdays, arriving on Sunday and departing Wednesday. I'd play a few small to medium tournaments and fill in the rest of the time with cash games.

The theme of this trip was going to be minimalistic - travel, dine and drink lightly and try to enjoy my time at the tables, while engaging in that special mix of relaxation and occasional terror that only poker can offer. In August, the price of flights and hotel stays drops significantly, serving as another incentive. Using (mostly) AMEX rewards, I booked a room at Aria. On the day, I packed a carry-on plus backpack and headed out to the Seattle airport's Wally park garage. Despite having booked with Alaska - the first stop on the shuttle's round - I asked the driver to take me all the way to the end of the line so that I could go through the shorter TSA-pre security lineup on the South end of the airport, where the international gates are located. I then proceeded to take the underground train to link up to the North gate my flight was departing from - effectively hacking the system. Although the flight was during the lunchtime hours, I didn't stop to get food - I'd decided to bring my own protein bar and beef stick to carry me through. I did stop at a Starbucks to fill my Zojirushi coffee mug, a useful travel habit. On the plane, I was seated in a premium window seat, next to a middle aged lady on her way to some sort of convention. "That looks good" I remarked to her bland-looking chicken sandwich to get some form of polite conversation going. She seemed a nice enough type but didn't have much to say. We reached agreement that it's a good idea to purchase food at the airport and not on the plane these days. When the drink cart came around (don't they seem to take longer to get them going these days?), I opted for another recent favorite - two mini bottles of single malt whiskey (Glenfarclas) and a half cup of ice. Watching Netflix's Formula 1 series "Drive to Survive" kept me engaged - such a male cliche. 

Arriving at LAS airport, the walk through the baggage claim area to the rideshare elevator was a stark contrast to the previous trip - taken in mid-June 2023, my wife and I had to compete with a loud and rowdy swarm of travelers to get to the carousel and collect our luggage. This time, the vast hangar-style room was almost vacant and silent, informing me that this indeed is the "low season". Arriving at the Aria, same deal - no lineup to checkin and I got my room instantly. Aria, built a decade or so ago, is still a very nice property although it falls short of other premium hotels like Wynn, Venetian. The rooms, while still nice, are starting to show signs of age - the bathroom faucets and shower-heads are way past due for replacement, for example. No matter, the rest all worked well for me and in particular I enjoy the push-button blackout blinds, essential for morning (or any time of the day) sleep.

Too late to play the daily 1pm tournament, I decided to play 1/3 for a few hours. I like the Aria poker room - although smaller and non-descript compared to the more popular Venetian and Wynn rooms, it is fairly well run and notably, does not have a jackpot drop, leaving the max rake at $5. The 1/3 game has a max $500 buyin which I came in for. And the players are fairly pedestrian, tourist types, mostly sans the annoying geeky nerds that dominate other cardrooms like Wynn. The downside is that being adjacent to the slots, there's a lot of inane background noise, calling for noise cancelling headphones (which I generally prefer not to use in sessions so as not to block out the table chatter and tells).

Cash sessions don't always go one's way, and such this one started out. Every made hand was out-ranked (KQ vs AQ) or out-drawn. To deepen the run-bad, all of my draws missed. This went on for about 2 hours, then sort of an upswing, then more downswing and I found myself at about 7:30 pm down over $500. Still, I continued topping up to the max and over the next hour dug myself out of the hole back to almost par (mostly thanks to an A8cc hand rivering a flush and getting all in action from a K high flush). Next to the poker room is "Posh Burger", a pretty basic burger joint for about double the price of a normal basic burger joint anywhere but Vegas; I satisfied my hunger with an Impossible Burger (veggie). I got up at 8:30 pm and headed to my room for a quiet night of sleep. 

On Monday, I played a Venetian Seniors event with a $400 buyin, 30 minute levels, 200 BB to start and re-entries up to level 10 (contrary to one of my home game members who had insisted that re-entries are always up to level 4, everywhere). Since the event had a 10:10 AM start, my plan was to rise early, get a swim at the Aria pool, get coffee and a small snack at Starbucks, shower and head out to Venetian. To my mild dismay, the Aria pool only opens at 9:00 AM, forcing me to go to the gym instead. While the gym is great, it was jam packed and after my standard warm up on the elliptical, I had to compete with the weight jocks to get in a few basic reps (my entire routine, including warmup, is around 25 minutes). Post-gym, there are multiple breakfast options there, the conventional sit-down ones being exorbitant ($45 for an omelet and juice anyone?). Starbucks burnt my egg whites and I gave them the feedback - they offered a replacement but I didn't have time.

Arriving at the Venetian main door, my task was going to be to locate their new poker room, having recently relocated to the Palazzo second floor of shopping venues. After futzing around with Google maps and the useless touchpad hotel directory, I figured out that I need to head down the center aisle of the casino, following the signs until I get to the escalator taking me up to the right place. The room itself is large and impressive, with its own lavish restrooms and a free lounge, coffee and soft drinks area. 

Youtube short

I saddled up to the cage to get my tournament ticket and found my seat. There was a grizzled old guy seated (talking into his phone in the Youtube short above), in a heated conversation seemingly pitching his sales skills to someone. When he ended the call, I asked "business?" and he said in a Middle Eastern accent, nah, I'm retired, just making noises as if I'm working. That sounded a bit strange to me. I said, well I'd like to retire! He said that retirement is great, but it's a total mindset switch, no matter what I do today. I said that I might become an independent agent of some sort as a semi-retired occupation (side note: I have a Mortgage Loan Originator's license but came back to a full time job recently). He said, that's not retirement, retirement is really doing nothing except what you want. Well, I said, I need enough money for that. "Bluff more" was his answer and we both laughed. I said "I'll let you know when I'm bluffing". I later learned that he's a reg at that room, his name is Mohammed, or Mo as his buddies call him.

People sometimes come into Senior's events with preconceptions - the main one being, that they are mostly OMCs (Old Man Coffees) who only raise and 3Bet with the nuts etc. But my observation was that this tournament played like a typical midstakes event, with recognizable error patterns but nothing terribly surprising. The over-50 crowd has adapted at least somewhat to game theory and I didn't see the ridiculous open bet sizings (7X? 10X?) from even 2-3 years ago. I was card dead for the first hour or so, until I chipped up with A8 suited that flopped top pair, turned two pair, rivered a full house and got action on every street from AQo.

Now, back to our friend Mo. He was busy as a bee, playing about 50% of hands and piling up a large stack. Bluff more indeed, I thought. Then this hand: I picked up JJ on the BB, with blinds at 200/400 and a 400 ante, 46,000 in my stack, he covers. Mo opened to 1000 from early position, the SB called and I raised to 4000. Both of them called. The flop came T85. The SB checked, I led for 4000 (1/3 pot), Mo called and the SB folded. The turn was a 6. I bet 10,000 into the 20,400 pot and he made the call. The river was another T. I decided to check and he meticulously counted out 26,000, putting me almost all in if I called. I tanked - he was representing a narrow value range and in a cash game situation this should be a slam dunk call, especially with this player type. But the river T told a somewhat-plausible story that he had made trips or better, and in my experience it takes a special player to bluff most of his stack on the river. I ended up making the fold. Moe broke into a mischievous smile and winked at the fellow across the table from him (on the other end of mine). I concluded that I was likely bluffed but was ok to live and see the next hand with about 70 BBs remaining in my stack.

At some point and after a few more levels, I started to make hands and found myself at the 600/1200/1200 level with about 34,000 chips. I picked up AA and got all in vs KK to almost double up to 60,000. Then, card death until at the 800/1600/1600 I made "THE BIG STEAL"! It didn't matter much in the grand scheme, but I was proud of this one. I held 66 on the Button. Early position raised to 3000, there were 3 callers, I called and the BB called. 17400 in the pot. The flop was Q85, a whiff. It was checked around. The turn was a 9 and miraculously, it checked to me. I bet 1/3 pot (6000) and they all folded. Talk about value for yo money baby!! 

A few levels later, money time. Blinds were 1000/2000/2000, I had 45,000 in my stack with QQ on the button opened to 4500. BB raised to 15000 and he barely covered me. I decided to jam (almost trivial with 22.5 BB) and he snapped me off with AA. Duh. I said nice hand and exited. I don't get tilted by these events because the play at this point is almost robotic with these holdings. 

A pity though, because this event generated a prize pool of $41,000. 

It was still early afternoon and I was going to stay at Venetian and play some cash. I got onto the NLHE 1/3 and 2/3 waitlists and walked down the Palazzo shopping area to shake off the tournament bust out ickiness. Downstairs from there, I located the Miznon Israeli casual eatery, offering affordable and innovative meat, falafel, humus and related condiments in pita and plate options. When my plate arrived (roasted lamb and veggies), I got the call for 1/3 and completing my meal, walked up to the podium - I was about 10 minutes late and the seat had been taken but 2/3 was open. Even better! It allows a buyin of up to $600. 

Seated on seat 5 (my favorite), I noticed that seat 4 was a 40-ish well dressed tall Asian guy, man-spreading to almost prevent anyone from taking a spot next to him. When I said something like "sorry if I'm in your way", he grunted and improved his shape. As the game proceeded, I noticed he was playing close to 100% of hands as a limp, and seemed uncaring about whether he won or lost. 

In this game I didn't take notes - I had had enough of that in the tournament - but it was a very slow and quiet one until an active young-ish guy (30+?) sat down and started to shake it up. To start, he punted off a $200 stack on a silly call-down of a river jam by his opponent. I figured it might be advertising to get action down the road. Then, he proposed we do $10 bomb pots at every dealer change, which I enthusiastically embraced. He also proposed we do a round of straddles, I agreed but the table didn't cooperate. The bomb pots were double board no-limit holdem. In one of them, I rivered a full house on the top board, lost to a pair on the bottom board, still a chop was nice. Later, I scooped both boards, although the initial dealer read (and my own) was that it was a chop. New guy remarked that I scoop because I made an unnoticed flush on the bottom board. I thanked him and tried to toss him a $5 chip, he tossed it back and joked I can "give him the $200 I won from him" - however I didn't win any such pot from him, the largest being perhaps $40 or so.

Bottom line, after 4 hours of play I decided to make it a day and booked $210 in winnings, almost half of the tournament buyin. I made it back to the Aria for a quiet evening, watching some of the Democratic convention blabbering (Joe B finally did figure out how to talk) and catching up on House of the Dragon on my iPad.

Tuesday, Mickey (my son) was going to join me at the Aria for their 1pm daily $160 tournament, and so I had the morning to myself. At 9am I walked over to the pool area and checked in. Aria has two large pools, and trying to swim in the first one was futile - it was already getting full of families. I switched to the second pool and it was almost empty - ideal for a 15 minute swim. Starbucks had the spinach and egg wrap today and they didn't burn it. 

With a bit of time on my hands before the tournament, I sat at the Aria 1/3 game and it was a mid-morning sleepy one, with little action. I played for 2 hours until the tournament started and booked a $172 win.

For the tournament, Mickey arrived and we were seated on adjacent tables. I was on seat 1 in the corner of the room, and felt slightly claustrophobic. Some of the dealers were also not flat bellied (to be kind), and that made it hard for me to track the actions of seat 8 to the right of the dealer, forcing me to lean forward. The poker also sucked and I couldn't get anything going for the first levels. I found myself with a starting stack (22,000) to start level 6 300/600/600. Then stuff started to happen. I won a series of hands with AQ and QJ. I went into level 7 (400/800/800) with 45,000 chips. Then, a cooler with KQ that flopped trips and lost to a straight, and a mini-cooler with 74 in the BB that was checked to, flopped two pair and had to fold the river to aggression on a coordinated board. At level 8 (500/1000/1000) and holding Q9hh, I opened to 2200 from the cutoff, got 3 callers and the flop came Q84. They checked, I bet, one called. The turn was a 9 and the caller strangely led for 4000. I had seen this guy play hands weirdly, including stacking off his first buyin with a weak holding. So I decided to jam (I covered) and he snap called with a set of 4's. Well, well. And Mickey got to see that one since he had just bust and come to let me know.

Going from there, my stack was down to about 8000 and I chipped up to 20,000 with an all-in AJ being called by Q9. Then hung in there for another few levels, until at level 11, 1000/2000/2000 and 14000 in my stack, I open jammed AJ from early position, was called by AK and was out.

Like the previous day, I had some time to kill before I was going to go to dinner with Mickey. I walked up to the podium and was seated at a 2/5 table (max $1,500 buyin). I decided to buy in for just $600 because that matched the hundred dollar bills in my right pocket (as opposed to opening the zipper of my money belt). More importantly, it was what I felt comfortable risking sitting down at a table of unknowns at what may turn out to be a tough game.

As in cardrooms nation-wide, 2/5 plays differently than 1/3. There's more 3betting and less people go to an average flop. This one was no exception, and for a while I folded while trying to figure out a decent entry point into a hand. Then, I picked up KQcc in the small blind. Early position had opened to 20 (the standard for this table) and the button called. I raised to $65, a bit small compared to sizings you'll see in solver charts (like 3.5X + the number of calls for something like 85 or 90), but felt it was enough to build a nice pot if I flopped well. They both called. The flop came QX3 with two hearts. I led for $100 into the $185 pot, and just the button called. The turn came a blank, missing the flush draw. Given the $385 in the pot and my having about $410 behind, I jammed and the button folded. So I made $230 just in that hand. That first hand really helped build my image (I showed down he best hand in another spot) and later aggression on my part was mostly folded to. The rest of the session went swimmingly and I cashed out after 90 minutes of play, up $425. That was helpful.

For dinner, the Aria options didn't really look too attractive and the best restaurants were quite posh and forbidding (one doesn't even publish prices on its menu). So  Micky and I decided to double back to the Venetian and our trusty Miznon spot. I switched to a Pita with freshly roasted chicken (awesome) and he had a Pita with steak. $25 each plus diet coke (vodka soda for him) and we were happy guys. For Dad and son fantasy shopping, we took a peak at the Man-Cave store at Palazzo, worth walking into even if you don't feel like taking out a second mortgage to get one of their massage chairs. 

Mickey stayed overnight at my Aria room (he had been in a fantasy draft with friends the days prior) and flew back home early Wednesday. I woke, did the swimming / Starbucks drill again, checked out and - you guessed it - headed to the poker room to fill time until I needed to depart to my flight a bit past noon.

To have a relaxed time, I sat at 1/3. This was a pretty weird cast of characters (aren't they all strange in different ways?). I was seated in the hated seat 1 and moved to seat 2 when it opened up. To my left was a quiet lady with Caribbean or South American features. On the opposite side of the table in seats 6 and 7, was a couple of what looked to be "young rich Asians", both the lady and man terrifically dressed, with designer clothing and handbags, and a shit-ton of chips in front of the guy - $1,400? - she too had a nice stack. He must have built it up quickly, given the max $500 buyin at that level. While it was clear they were colluding, it was a soft collusion where they sometimes clashed in a hand. Nobody seemed to care. I'll call the guy Richie Rich.

Early on, I picked up KK in the BB. There was a limp, and a call from Richie. I raised to 35 and they both called. The flop was AAK. I cBet 30, the limper folded and Richie raised to 120. I thought, if he has an Ace I don't have to raise, all the money is going in anyway. Plus, I was only losing to the unlikely AK (2 combos) and AA (one combo). So I flat called, as I would with other nutted hands like quads. The turn was a 9, and it checked around. Blah. Now I knew he had bupkes - maybe a lower pocket pair. On the 8 river, I led for 200 and he folded.

After losing an annoying pot with ATdd vs 33 when it flopped AT4 and turned 3, I picked up 66 in the BB. The lady to my left opened first to act, SB and I called. The flop was the beautiful 642. I checked, she bet 20, SB folded, I raised to 60, she hesitated and said the magic words: all in. She had AA and got felted. I genuinely felt sorry for her.

Getting up after 2 hours, I cashed out for a $562 win.

End results:

  • Tournaments: -$560
  • Cash: +$1,319
  • Satisfaction: 100%
Heading back to Seattle, the flight was ok. Seated in 9D (aisle seat), I had to dodge all the clueless people boarding with large carry-ons that kept hitting my shoulders. But I liked the idea of being able to hit the head as often as I wanted. This time, the Netflix feature was The Long Game, a true story of a 1950's Latino High School golf team with Dennis Quaid. I'm not a golfer but this was a really good one. Landing into the low 70's local weather brought me down to earth, and happy to be back home.


Thursday, January 25, 2024

Winning at Low-stakes Poker

 

Overview

This post will be about beating low-stakes no limit hold’em, both generally and specific to the games I play (0.5/1 home games, 1/3 cardroom games).

Why would I share advice, if it’s any good? While it could be self-defeating – making my opponents better players if they follow it, I think the benefits are myriad:

  •     Sharpening my own thoughts and theories to make me a better player
  •     Developing follow-up threads to share thoughts amongst readers
  •     Be remembered / recognized as someone that helped even one person increase their profits, would mean a lot to me.

I’m sharing this as free content – but if you take some part of the advice below and feel that you have profited from it, please let me know, and (seriously) Venmo me a token amount as thanks!

If you’re like most recreational poker players, you like to play for fun – whether cash games or tournaments. Cash game players enjoy the camaraderie of a regular home game or of chatting with familiar faces at their local cardroom. Tournament players like the added component of a structured event, limiting their exposure to the buyin amount and building up tension as the blinds go up and relative stack sizes compress.

So, if you could continue with your hobby and get better at it with minimal investment, why would you not do so? If you were a tennis or golf player and I gave you a single piece of advice that would increase your win rate by 10%, would you take it? This is what I’m going to try to do here.

Why me?

First, let’s get one thing out of the way. What qualifies me to dispense advice to fellow players? Am I really better (or as good as you) in this crazy game? For starters, I’m not a coach and I don’t have life changing money wins in my past (my Hendon mob entry for published tournament winnings will show virtually zero). I guess my best answer is that over the past year or so, I’ve made some changes in my game that I believe have yielded very good results. Sharing some of those insights may benefit you, and they may also help you beat me! I say, bring it on, because when I see you improving then I’ll have to adjust and improve some more!!

Common (Unforced) Errors

Let’s look at a few of the most common and (borrowing from tennis) “unforced” errors I see at every level. As you go up in stakes (say to 2/5 or 5/10 cash games, larger tournament buyins), these errors although still existent, diminish somewhat. All of the examples below relate to a full-ring table with 9 players, 200 big blinds deep ($200 at 0.5/1 with no rake, similar to our home games).

Open limping

You are the first to act (under the gun). You look down at a hand like Q9 offsuit or J7 suited and decide to limp (call the blind amount). Your reasoning is that your hand doesn’t feel strong enough to raise, but you would like to see a flop with it and potentially stack a better starting hand that has raised you preflop.

The problem with this thought process is that although you will occasionally flop well, over any decent sample size you will lose money with this action. If your table is passive and everyone limps after you then sure, you’ve just won the lottery – you’ll get to see a flop for almost free. But if there is at least one raise after you, you will now have to call another 2-3 blinds just to see a flop which you will most likely have to check/fold. That’s called lighting money on fire.

Some of the more advanced players have developed what they call a “balanced open limping range” including monsters like AA-JJ that will limp-reraise preflop. One problem with this strategy is that when players in position see a limp-reraise they understand what it means. Another is that when you removed monsters from your open-raising range of hands, that weakens it unnecessarily, making it hard to balance multiple ranges.

Over-limping

You are in 5th position from the blinds, one to the right of the button (aka cutoff). There have been 3 limps to you and you look down at A3 offsuit or Q7 suited. You proceed to just call, hoping to see a flop.

This is less of an error than limping first to act, because it is less likely you will face raises from the remaining positions – button, small blind and big blind. However, you are still investing in a pot where if you flop top pair and face action, you will most often be dominated. If you are really good at knowing “where you are” and folding such hands (like when the board is Q-T-4-3 and you are raised on the turn by a tight player), then you will minimize your losses. However, the reason that the preflop charts advocate folding these hands is again – over a large sample size they are negative EV (expected value).

A footnote to this pattern is that over-limping the button with speculative hands is not (usually) a large error, especially when the blinds don’t often raise. You get to see a pot in position with a hand that may make the nuts (like 65 suited) and that didn’t want to bloat it preflop.

Opening and calling too many hands

This is an error common to most players, closely related to the limping errors. You get bored folding and want to see flops (as a smart man said: “The hand only starts on the flop”). You are playing more hands than “theoretically correct” and inevitably, over time, lose money as a result. Take a look at this App to determine which hands you can open at which stack sizes and positions : https://app.floptimal.com/

Examples at 100BB cash games, 8 players:

  •      AT offsuit is mostly a fold in first position
  •      JT offsuit is a fold up to 4th position
  •      22 is a fold up to 5th position

Varying open bet sizings

You are in middle position (say 3rd from the blinds), and looking down at 77 or AK suited, decide to open bet 6 big blinds. While your “standard” open bet sizing is 3 big blinds, you decide to make it bigger here, to discourage calls and allow you to pick up the pot without (or with less) resistance.

The problem with this strategy is that it is unbalanced. Your opponents quickly learn that there is a portion of holdings you want to “protect” more than another, and will adapt accordingly (bonus: what are the correct adaptations here?).

When I expressed this line of thought to a friend, he responded that he likes to “mix things up” to confuse opponents and doesn’t necessarily bunch one category of hands into a larger bet sizing. While this seems to make sense on the surface, to me this rationale doesn’t really add up. It would seem that the best way to “confuse opponents” would be to keep the bet sizings identical with both strong and speculative holdings.

There is an argument to be made for varying open bet sizings based on position. So, in early position I will open smaller (say, 2-2.5 big blinds) and in later position will open a bit larger (2.5-3 blinds). But it should never be a function of my hole cards. Why smaller in early position? Because it is the harder position to play post-flop and we have less incentive to bloat the pot preflop.

Incorrect sizing adaptations

Another common error I see, is not adapting the open bet sizing appropriately to prior action. Two examples come to mind:

A. Two players in early position have limped. In middle position, you look down at AKo and raise to your standard, 3 big blind sizing.

B. The first player to act has limped and second player has raised to 5 big blinds. In late position, you look down at JJ and raise to 12 big blinds.

In both cases, you have failed to adjust your raise size to prior actions; in the AKo case, you’ll want to raise to your normal sizing plus the number of limps (e.g. 3+2). Some pros advocate going even larger, say adding 2 big blinds for each limper to something like 7 BB.

In the JJ case, someone has opened to 5 BB over a limper. That already indicates a strong holding. In fact, the product I train with (PokerSnowie) will fold JJ in that spot!!


But, given we are not playing against an AI bot but rather against a human who will be unbalanced with his/her raises, I will most often want to 3bet this hand in order to either take it down now or get heads-up with them with a top 3% hand (JJ). I will raise to something like 3X the original raise plus limp, 16 BB. The extra 4 BB gives opponents worse odds to call with hands like KQo, ATo that will be doing not too badly against our JJ should they just call. Should opponent then 4Bet, in our games we will know (most likely) that they either have JJ dominated with AA-QQ or are flipping with AK and can get away from our hand. By the way, in “PokerSnowie land”, hands like KQo and ATo are never raising to 5BB second to act and that helps explain the JJ fold.

Post-flop: Donk betting

The action that to me most marks an opponent as a “fish” is frequently donk-betting flops. Example: you limped in early position with QT offsuit. Button raised to 3.5 BB and you called. The flop is Q73 rainbow. You lead out for 5 BB. Case 1: button folds. Case 2: button reraises to 18 BB.

Outcome: In both cases you have torched money.

In Case 1, when you check then button will often Cbet because a Q high board favors his range. You can then just-call and decide how to proceed on future streets, based on the board runout and opponent actions. While your QT is quite literally a bluff catcher in this spot, it will still be profitable to call down on many boards. However, when you lead out and opponent has whiffed the flop (say, holding A5 suited), you have just let them off the hook. You lose any cBet that they would have made, plus any follow-up betting that you could have picked bluffs from on turn or river.

In Case 2, you have bet into a strong range with a middle strength holding and have been reraised. You can’t continue and have to fold a decent hand that could have called one or two “normal” bets.

When smart opponents see what you are doing, they will put you into a lot of Case 2 spots, even with bluffs and you may find yourself facing an all-in bet on the river with absolutely no idea what to do, all because of that silly donk bet.

Caveat: there are boards favoring the preflop caller in early position, and donk-betting is sometimes warranted on them. For example, a 654 board greatly favors the callers’ range and he can donk lead there with hands like sets, two-pairs, gutshots, combo draws etc. This is a bit more of an advanced topic and the subject of “solver study” to determine which hands fit best into donk leading ranges.

Caveat 2: When you call a raise in position, it checks to you on the flop and you bet, that is not "donk betting". The preflop raiser, by not continuation betting, has indicated that the board does not favor their hand and/or range, and now betting in position by you is natural. I try not to take this concept too far, because the preflop raiser may simply be trapping the other players with a monster or overpair that s/he will re-raise over any bet. See next paragraph on cBetting too frequently.

Post-flop: cBetting too frequently

This is one element of my game that when improved, changed my results dramatically. My early theoretical poker study, taught me that when I am the preflop aggressor, I should almost always cBet the flop. This, regardless of stack sizes, number of opponents in the pot, board texture etc. The logic behind that advice was simple: when I raise preflop and get called, me and my opponents will most often not make pairs or better on the flop. When I cBet, I am denying them the opportunity to continue on these missed flops and will be printing money. In theoretical terms this is called equity denial.

If you are a fan of 2000’s era poker shows like Poker After Dark and the old-school tournament series, you’ll see this pattern in action a lot. Aggression (and counter-aggression) seemed to be the driving passion of most players and viewers loved to watch Phil Ivey putting opponents to the test with hands like 52o that whiffed the board.

As GTO solvers and related technologies became popular, it became clear that post-flop play has to adapt to all of the elements : stack-to-pot ratios, board texture (card rankings and dynamism). In fact, multi-player poker isn’t fully solved and the AI example I can extract from PokerSnowie’s Scenarios tool are mere approximations – relying on millions of hands played against itself.

This is a long-winded way of saying that before betting a flop, take a look at the board and the number of players in the hand. The worse the board for your range and / or the more number of players in the hand, the less likely you should be to cBet.

There’s another side benefit to this approach: when you are out of position (usually early position) post-flop, you want to depress the number of cBets as a natural function of your position. And that opens the door for highly profitable check-raises by you.

Example: sitting at the cardroom yesterday playing 1-3 with a $300 max bet limit, I held AA in early position. I opened to $10 preflop and got 3 callers. The flop came Q77 and I checked. A player in late position, playing a stack of about $150, bet $50. I put him all in, he called and lost (mucked his hand on the river). If I had cBet this flop, I would have won $140 less.

Tuesday, November 14, 2023

End Game

As of this writing, the world seems to have gone mad. Russia v Ukraine, Hamas v Israel and God knows what else history (or maybe China?) has in store for us. This piece attempts to put some sort of narrative together to interpret the Israel/Hamas conflict and to outline what the future may bring. 

The pain of 239 innocent hostages being held by Hamas in Gaza for over a month, including children, elderly people and even a pregnant woman who has given birth in captivity, should be in the minds of anyone thinking of or discussing this issue. It is unprecedented in civilized humanity and is truly medieval in its cruelty and savagery.

Disclaimer

I’m a Canadian/Israeli living in the USA since 2005. I am not a Middle-East expert, journalist, researcher or anything similar. The observations and opinions below are my own and are subject to revision given that we live in a rapidly changing world where it seems that we absorb new information daily. Also, whether you are an Israel-supporter or Israel-basher the content herein may be of interest to you, but if you are of the latter group, I consider you an adversary (if not outright enemy). I'll be distributing this article to a limited list of people, but if you're one of the recipients, please feel free to remark or correct anything in it.

Where We Are

At the time of writing (Nov 19, 2023), Israel is in the midst of a military ground operation in Gaza, aimed at dismantling the Hamas organization and/or its military capability. This, in wake of the horrific 10/7 massacre (aka "Black Saturday") carried out by the Hamas terrorists in quasi-ISIS/Nazi style acts. If you classify Hamas as “militants”, meaning that these are an oppressed people in a resistance struggle, then you are one of the “useful idiots” serving the purposes of the world’s Evil Axis. More on the Evil Axis below.

While we don’t yet know the outcome of this operation, it was clear from the onset that it was going to be a very tough one. It’s really hard to uproot a quasi-military organization from within a civilian population, more so when it’s entrenched in a very large tunnel system including underground bases.  The resulting Gazan civilian casualty count is tragically high, some due directly to military operations and others indirectly due to the humanitarian crisis (lack of basic supplies, food and medical care). The fact that Hamas operates from within civilian buildings and installations is the main cause of this tragedy, since Israel does not intentionally target civilians. It is also notable that while Hamas has ample supplies of food, water and fuel in its underground tunnels, the hospitals and population above those tunnels are not given any of them (as far as we know).

Israel is also facing an escalation from the Lebanese, Iran-driven Hezbollah terror group in the North. It has over 100,000 missiles pointed at all parts of Israel (some guided and accurate), and that threat with the low-intensity fighting has so far been effective in driving most of the Northern Israeli population out of the border towns.

How Did We Get Here and What To Do?

A deep understanding the history of the Israel / Palestine conflict its various turning points and the strategies (both successful and failed) of the parties, is beyond the purview of this piece. I suggest Jack Carr's Interview with Jonathan Schanzer as a good starting point for the history of terror organizations in this part of the world.

Below is an attempt to summarize in brief, the positions and “narratives” of the various stakeholders / parties / media outlets both international and local. 

The Outside View

Mainstream Media (MM)

The Mainstream Media comprises of CNN, BBC, other liberal/democratic media in the Western world. Their narrative (simplified) has been :

  • Hamas conducted horrific, barbaric attacks on Israel on Black Saturday.
  • Israel responded with disproportionate brutality, causing the deaths of thousands of civilians (and "militants" - Hamas doesn't distinguish between them in its body counts).
  • Although Israel has “the right to defend itself”, it should agree to cease fires with Hamas so that humanitarian concerns can be addressed in Gaza. Better still, if Israel would cease all fire indefinitely so that Hamas can re-arm for the next round of hostilities. CNN and BBC differ in this regard, the former presenting a more balanced perspective and the latter being more hostile to the Israeli position and repeating Hamas lies without adequate fact-checking (ex: the false "Hospital bombing" report).
  • The fact that Hamas holds 239 hostages in Gaza and could be pressured by an extended military campaign to release them, is reported but is not connected to the need to continue and put military pressure on Hamas for their release.
  • Although Hamas was out of line, the Palestinian resistance movement writ large can be justified by Israel’s generation-long occupation of the West Bank and refusal to engage in a meaningful peace process. They call Hamas members “militants” as opposed to “terrorists”.
  • The poor Gazans have been living in an open-air prison for decades. They conveniently ignore the history that Gaza was vacated by Israel in 2005, followed by a violent overthrow of the Fatah movement in Gaza by Hamas, after which it started attacking Israel with rocket fire on repeated occasions.
  • They have lots of ideas for Israel and what it should and shouldn’t be doing vis-à-vis Hamas. Notably, the mostly-friendly Thomas Friedman (NY Times) seems to think he acts as a proxy for the Biden administration’s messaging about Israel’s way forward in this conflict, claiming that ultimately, Israel must now concede that a two-state solution remains the only viable long-term solution for the Israelis and Palestinians.

The Woke Campus Left / Social Media Influencers and Celebrities

The Woke Campus Left mainly resides in Ivy league and liberal arts educational institutions in the Western world. During my lifetime, they have bought into a Marxist vision that views the world as “Oppressed” and “Oppressor” peoples and nations. There is a mountain of literature that elaborates on this point, but for the purposes of this article, it will suffice. Their messages are:

  • Israel was born from oppression, as a colonialist creation. It is now a de-facto Apartheid state.
  • The Palestinians have been systematically oppressed since the creation of Israel.
  • No matter what we see on our screens, Israel is always in the wrong and should be the subject of sanctions.
  • We show our virtue by joining the Palestinians in their demonstrations against Israel worldwide.
  • We show no sympathy to the Israeli hostages held by Hamas. We only show sympathy to the Gazan civilians who are being “butchered” by Israel (ignoring / denying their use as human shields by Hamas).
  • Going forward, Israel should either disappear or become one merged Jewish/Arab country, details of which are murky. It should trust the Palestinians to then cease hostilities against Jews. 
  • More on the moral decrepitude of the Woke Campus Left at Atlantic Article by Tom Nichols.  
  • A funny Israeli Satire video about the Columbia U students.
The Social Media landscape also trends towards the Palestinian position, influencing the younger Western demographic successfully to the point that in a survey published on 11/19, a majority of below-30 Americans prefer the Palestinian to the Israeli position. Notable Hollywood and sports celebrities have also dived into the controversy, usually to their discredit.

The Conservative Media and Silent Majority

Countering the Mainstream Media and Campus Left voices, is a silent (or not too vocal) majority of folks who see things otherwise. Media standouts of this group have been Piers Morgan (UK) and Bret Stephens (USA). Their view is that:

  • Terror organizations like Al Qaida, Taliban, ISIS, Hamas, Hezbollah all drink from the poison well of state-sponsors like Iran, Russia, and sometimes less-known actors like North Korea, Yemen, Qatar etc.
  • The appeasement of these organizations leads to all sorts of trouble and mayhem worldwide.
  • Israel has tried time and again to negotiate peace deals with the Palestinians. The result – every time – has been rejection, hostility and war.
  • Israel should clean house (its internal business) and deal with its terrorist enemies. It should be helped in any reasonable way, including and up to deploying USA carrier groups in the East Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf. 
  • Going forward, it isn’t clear that there should be a two-state solution – it should be up to the parties to negotiate but only after the terror groups are disarmed. 
  • A sampling of Piers Morgan tearing into a person proud of removing hostage posters in LA. Also his interview of Dr. Jordan Peterson.

The Inside View

The Israeli Right

The Israeli Right wing comprises of the parties that together, assembled the most Right-wing / Religious coalition government in Israel’s history.

Their views – derived from social media posts and conversations (including family members):

  • Hamas with this attack, has not only shown its hand, but has also revealed what the vast majority of Palestinians desire – the total annihilation of Israel and genocide of its Jewish population. Or in other words, a realization of the Nazi vision 78 years after the end of WWII. In fact, copies of Hitler’s “Mein Kampf” were found in Hamas classrooms during the current operation. Hamas has 80% popular support in the West Bank and Gaza.
  • Black Saturday is attributed to the failed “left wing” policies of pursuing a peace process and appeasement – despite right-wing governments being in power for most of the past 2.5 decades. There is a bit of interesting rationale around this – the key premise being that the Israeli elite – via its Supreme court system, military and supporting media – have hindered the right from realizing its agenda (sounds a bit far-fetched given the steady progress of settlement activity and the recent “judicial reform” initiative, but that’s their opinion).
  • Israel must fight its enemies to the death. Civilian casualties – collateral damage – while not an operational objective, are not that terrible since the Gazan children are taught hatred from their mothers and are the future terrorists we’ll have to deal with.
  • The Israeli parties and individuals calling for Bibi Netanyahu’s resignation are hurting the war effort and playing into Hamas’ and Iran’s hands. After the war, there will be an inquiry and he may have to resign, but internal strife on this point is counter-productive right now.
  • Going forward, there isn’t a viable “partner for peace” – the PA itself is no better than Hamas, not having condemned its acts and failing to shut down Hamas’ operations in the West Bank (Israel having to do this by itself). The best we can hope for is to create deterrence by destroying the terror groups, have an Israeli military presence in both West Bank and Gaza, and offer the Palestinians who choose to live in peace, a peaceful existence while running their affairs internally without a state apparatus.
  • Fundamentally, Israel has a right to sovereignty over the entire land (Eretz Israel) - both from the Bible and from a reading of ancient Jewish history. The West Bank is disputed territory and there never has been an indigenous Palestinian nation. Israel should continue settling the entire land and opposition be damned. That is also the way to project power to our neighbors so that they will live with us civilly.

The Israeli Center

The Israeli Center mainly comprises of centrist parties led by Benny Ganz, Yair Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman and Labour. The Ganz party has joined the government in a national emergency coalition, for the duration of the current war.

Its positions (with minor variations between the parties) are:

  • The failure of Israel to protect its citizens on 10/7 was both military and political. Netanyahu failed in his job and should admit his failure and resign when the campaign is over. Numerous intelligence reports coming from field operatives and scouts passed up to the higher echelons, were ignored. More to come when the full inquiry is conducted.
  • The timing of Black Saturday was driven by an imminent Saudi / USA / Israel deal. Hamas since the 1990’s has consistently strived – with some success – to blow up peace initiatives. Iran is operating behind the scenes here.
  • They are on board with eliminating Hamas and Hezbollah. In fact, Hezbollah is the greater mid-term threat. We should always keep in mind the fate of our hostages while doing so, and be willing to negotiate for their release, including accepting humanitarian pauses and temporary cease fires.
  • Most of the Arab world, and a minority of the Palestinians, privately want Hamas to be eliminated. They won’t speak up for fear of being murdered – and Hamas / Islamic Jihad have always been brutal in quieting dissenting voices. We should still seek out friendly, non-violent parties from within the Palestinians, for a dialog on security and civil matters.
  • The claim by the right wing that criticism of its government and is playing into the enemy’s hands is clearly ridiculous. The Israeli military includes people from all walks of life and opinions, and political discourse won’t impact its operations. From a PR aspect, the right wing has pretty much done all in its power to destroy Israel’s reputation abroad – not least by appointing incompetent people to official PR positions.
  • Going forward, Gaza should not be ruled by Israel and ideally, a reformed PA (Palestinian Authority) or an international entity could take responsibility for its civilian affairs – much like Area B of the West Bank where Israel is allowed to operate militarily when required. 
  • They believe should co-operate with the USA in mapping out a future for the post-Hamas war, inasmuch as it doesn't curtail Israel's ability to disable Hamas and (in the future) strike out at the Hezbollah / Iran Axis of Evil.

The Israeli Left

There are some remnants of the Israeli left wing parties, amongst them Arab-majority parties focused on Arab-Israeli affairs. Ra’am (led by the widely respected Mansour Abbas) was a member of the previous Israeli government and is a standout in that it is also considered conservative in civil matters.

  • While I haven’t been closely following the discourse on this part of the political map, it’s safe to say that many in the Israeli left are disappointed by the worldwide reaction to the conflict and in particular the Campus Left. Some of the murdered and captured Israelis on Black Saturday, residents of the villages on the Gaza border, were peace movement members who interacted with Gaza residents including providing transportation to and from local hospitals for medical treatment.
  • Going forward, the Left will mainly align with the Center in attempting to remove Bibi from office and in trying to steer the country towards more pragmatic positions.
  • It also is likely that it invest less energy into pro-Palestinian initiatives – perhaps aside from members of the Israeli-Arab Muslim community who will tend to sympathize with them. 
  • On the whole, the Left sides with the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank/Gaza and views the current conflict as an outgrowth of a failed strategy to expand West Bank settlements, not provide the Palestinians with a political future and generally provoke them to hostility (e.g. by walking onto the Temple Mount, seen as a threat to the integrity of the Al Aksa mosque).

My View?

I’m an interested observer who is also emotionally involved in this story. A dispassionate view now is difficult, but perhaps useful as both a coping mechanism and as a means of providing hope for the future.

  • Until 10/7 I was (and am still) generally aligned with the Israeli Center (see above for their positions). However, that Center is shifting to the point of no longer supporting a two-state solution in the near term. A recent intra-Palestinian survey by AWRAD (Arab World for Research & Development), puts support for 10/7 and Hamas at 76%. It now appears that there will be no political resolution in the foreseeable future, and that Israel will be fighting on multiple fronts against Hamas and Hezbollah terrorism, requiring a military presence in both Gaza and potentially, Southern Lebanon.
  • I’m appalled by the Woke Campus Left – nothing new there, I never really liked them, but I as many of my fellow Jews did not expect this level of vitriol from them. As a consequence, I will now tend to ignore their noise, demonstrations and messaging. Many of them are good old Anti-Semites in “Woke” disguise – a noxious potion. 
  • I’m disappointed with the Mainstream Media reaction on the whole – with some exceptions. I’ve cancelled my Seattle Times subscription, after they systematically avoided any editorial defense of Israel and leaned too heavily towards critical reporting (much of it based on Hamas lies).
  • I dislike the positions of the Israeli right - in my opinion they have the wrong idea. Isolationism and Messianism do not equal nation-building and my hope is that they will be in the minority in a future election (unlikely given the Israeli demographics). It also does not help Israel's position when prominent cabinet members deny that there is a humanitarian issue in Gaza and/or that civilian deaths are not Israel's concern.
  • There is an alarming rise in provocations in the West Bank by settlers against Palestinians, sometimes even to the point of shooting at innocents. This must be stopped and the perpetrators arrested and brought to trial. Nevertheless, the vast majority of West Bank hostilities are carried out daily by both Fatah and Hamas and just random Palestinians, towards the settlers. The West Bank should be cleansed of Hamas - which IDF is currently doing.
  • While a peaceful two-state solution looks impossible now, there will need to be some sort of negotiated settlement both in Gaza and the West Bank, at least at the civilian level. I recommend following the Israel Policy Forum for great content, podcast, lectures and educational seminars on that topic.

Questions and Answers


Q. Why do you side with Israel continuing its war with Hamas and causing so many civilian casualties? Wouldn't a cease fire be the right thing to do now given the severe humanitarian crisis Gazans are under?

A. Since Israel's withdrawal from Gaza in 2005 and its subsequent violent coup by Hamas, they have developed a playbook for successive attacks on Israel. It starts with shelling Israeli cities, prompting an Israeli response and then when there is sufficient damage to civilian assets and a mounting casualty count, calling for a cease fire. When fire is ceased, they re-arm and increase their capabilities towards the next round. A significant round was in 2014, when they kidnapped and killed 3 Israeli teenagers, resulting in a short-lived Israeli ground incursion into Gaza. This time, while they have outdone themselves with the Black Saturday massacre, their playbook remains the same. After suffering a significant destruction of Northern Gaza and Gaza city and precipitating a humanitarian crisis of epic proportions, they are relying on their "useful idiot" partners in the official Western media and unofficial social media channels, to call for a cease fire so that they can regroup and come back for another round of hostilities. It's clear that Israel, if it seeks survival, can't agree to this, although temporary pauses for hostage releases can be useful.

Also, when the term "Israel causes civilian casualties" is used, that is at least partially false. Israel actively avoids civilian casualties to the extent possible, also by warning people before they attack a building. In this campaign however, due to the need to attack Hamas installations and headquarters in a timely manner, warnings were suspended and innocents were impacted. This is a tragic consequence of Hamas using civilians as human shields. Asking civilians to move to Southern Gaza was another tactic designed to minimize their casualty count, and not to "force relocate" them as reported in many media outlets. 

As Michael Oren points out in his interview with Jack Carr, there are 3 standards for civilian casualties in war: 1. Non-democratic nations like Syria (killing hundreds of thousands of its own citizens in the 1980s), Russia etc. 2. Democratic countries like USA in its Middle East campaigns 3. Israel. Israel gets its own standard due to anti-Semitism.  

Q. Aren't the Israeli West Bank settlements the primary cause of this war?

A. The call of "from the River to the Sea, Palestine shall be free" doesn't differentiate between West Bank settlements and the rest of Israel. The call (and Hamas' charter) is for the total destruction of Israel and the massacre of all its Jews. Black Saturday was a demonstration of that intent and a precursor to what will happen if Israel ever concedes to terror. The same is true for Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Israel will have to deal with their threats and hostilities, much more significant than Hamas' and Iranian-backed.

Q. Should there not be a two-state solution? The world has recognized Palestinian self-determination. 

A. The Oslo peace process of the 1990's and early 2000's was directed at that solution. As recently as 2000, a full accord was proposed at Camp David with the participation of Bill Clinton, Ehud Barak and Yasser Arafat, including approximately 97% of West Bank and Gaza in Palestinian sovereignty and land swaps to accommodate some of the existing settlements. Arafat declined that deal and embarked on the second Intifada against Israel. Fast forward to the present, it does not appear that Palestinian sovereignty in either the West Bank or Gaza would be used for anything other than to attack it. Palestinian schools teach Jew-hatred and copies of Mein Kampf have been found in Gazan schools. So it now appears that the only respite Israel will have from violence, lies in combating terror and never allowing something akin to Black Saturday, to recur.

Q. What should be the role of USA?

A. Biden's initial strong support of Israel was very well received there. Moving Navy carrier groups into the East Mediterranean also discouraged Iran/Hezbollah from joining the fray in a significant way. 6 weeks later, mounting internal pressures on the White House to force a cease fire on Israel, may cause a rift in USA-Israel relations and that would be regrettable. Here too, "useful idiots" in the State Department and other Democrat-majority institutions are indirectly serving Hamas' and Hezbollah's objectives.

Also, USA should be ready to have its hand forced in the Middle East. Although it has a strong preference not to get involved in another ground operation there - If Iran, through Hezbollah, embarks on a major attack on Israel, it may not be enough for Israel to defend its Lebanese border, and the USA may need to commence operations in the Persian Gulf with the objective to defend against Iranian and Yemeni aggression there.

Q. What is the long game and plan for a post-Hamas reality? Quoting from a friend: Israel’s end game seems to be the complete eradication of Hamas. Okay, but then what?  Even if Hamas is completely obliterated tomorrow the end result of this current conflict is that for every one militant killed there will be 4 or 5 new ones to replace them. This short term conflict has to be part of a longer, broader plan. It doesn’t seem like it is.

A. This goes to the core of the problem and will be a point of contention between Israel, the USA and other interested parties. In minute 45 of Michael Oren's interview with Jack Carr, he explains (paraphrased) that unlike the US in Afghanistan or Iraq, if Israel picks up and leaves Gaza it can expect the terrorists to invade again, since they are on its doorstep. Hence there will need to be an Israeli military presence for now, but he doesn't envision Israel getting into a state-making venture. He would like to internationalize the problem - against Netanyahu's current opinion - and demilitarize the strip from terror groups. Then create a cordon of no-man's land about 2 miles deep (MN - I think this will be more like 1 kilometer, given the narrowness of Gaza). We can't get rid of the idea of Hamas, any more than the USA could get rid of the idea of Al-Qaeda and ISIS; but they were very much degraded so that they don't today represent the threat that they did. When you remove terrorists from state power, they can be degraded. Also, we are in a forever war, since we have nowhere else to go and that dictates our strategy.

Peace Out

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



[1] In 1929, Hebron Palestinians murdered over 67 Jews – their peaceful neighbors - following rumors that Jews were planning to seize control of the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. Sound familiar? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1929_Hebron_massacre

Tuesday, October 10, 2023

Washington State Live Poker Circa Oct-2023

Message sent to poker players on my home game invitation list, and some of their responses:

I'm soon interviewing for a poker podcast and would like to hear your insights about the state of liver poker in Washington state. Below are my observations but I'd be interested in your remarks so that I can consider them in my interview.

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Historically (up until about 2017-18), legal commercial live poker in WA was offered by both tribal casinos and non-tribal cardrooms, with the larger tribal casinos - Muckleshoot, Tulalip, and Emerald Queen Casino having large enough rooms to offer large sized tournament series. The cardrooms in the Puget sound area - Silver dollar, Caribbean, Hollywood, Red Dragon, Hideaway (anyone remember that one?) were small-sized and limited in their offerings. Many casual players preferred to play at the tribal casinos where they had a better game selection, food and beverage offerings, non-poker activities and great poker tournaments. 

In the 2018-19 period, Muckleshoot and Snoqualmie tribes shut down their poker rooms, inexplicably.

After the Covid pandemic, other tribal properties like Tulalip and EQC failed to re-open their poker rooms as well.

To fill the gap in the market, Fortune (Renton and Lacey), and Palace opened 15-table cardrooms and a few others expanded their rooms. Maverick gaming purchased and modernized a number of commercial cardrooms, includes Aces and Caribbean in the Seattle area.

However, tournament opportunities are still severely limited compared to a decade ago, and there is no indication from the Tribes of imminent re-openings or new investments in poker.

Mainly to blame for this sad state of affairs is the regulatory framework. While the commercial cardrooms fall under state legislation and the state gambling commission, tribal casinos have their own separate framework. Commercial cardrooms operate under the presumption of generating food and drink revenue, with card games as a secondary priority. Every time there is a proposal to raise gaming limits (the most recent being a proposal to go from $300 to $500 per bet), the tribes - although inactive in the commercial cardroom and poker economy - oppose the proposals with the argument that it would encourage "problem gambling". This is a sham and hypocritical, given that they are allowed $500 limits; so their true intent is likely to severely limit legal poker in WA state so that gaming revenue stops bleeding from their casinos to private cardrooms. This is also a short-sighted tactic, since they could just as well re-open their poker rooms and draw in the crowds - if run effectively. So the entire saga seems to be one of poor leadership by the tribes and their inability / lack of knowledge how to profitably run a poker room. Incidentally, the gaming commission eventually compromised and raised the betting limit to $400 effective 9/25/23.

An offshoot of this situation is that illegal and gray-area games - from rake-based tournaments and large private games - are flourishing. No-rake low stake home games of our type are never a problem (aside from the odd Keith-style cheating event), but when people start raking them and large sums of money change hands, that creates inherent risks to the players including running into the commission's crosshairs. As well, the short sighted regulatory environment creates incentive for players to go online, where they are at risk of contravening state laws to the extent of facing felony charges.

All in all this is a sad state of affairs, which should be addressed in the future by a more modern-looking and less puritanical approach to gaming at the state legislative level. Refer to recent legislation in states like New Jersey, Michigan, Delaware to allow online poker and other states like Arizona, Florida, California to raise live betting levels to the extent where (e.g.) in California and Florida you can go all in for unlimited amounts.

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Responses:
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Steve:
I think the tribal casinos continue to be short sighted as you noted on at least two things:

- I think they keep investing in table games instead of poker because they think it's a zero-sum game of gamblers.  If there's no poker room, gamblers are going to have to play table games or slots.  However, I know many poker players that would never play table games (again) because they understand the odds favor the house (and frankly, table games just aren't fun).

- It's my understanding that the tribal casinos had heavily lobbied to make online poker a felony in WA state as they feared it would take players away from their (once existing) live games.  I think the WSOP in 2006 showed that online poker brought in MORE players to live games.  Some people start out online and then want to play live.  Certainly some live players may decide it's more convenient to play online, but live games and online games play very differently and appeal to different folks.  I still believe that legalizing online poker in WA would have brought in more live players over time.
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Rory:
Super interesting stuff. I'm not sure the context of the podcast, but I do think more attention should be given to the other side of the argument to get the full picture. 

Is poker just inherently expensive to operate and as such not a great business for the casino's?

What other reasons do the casinos have for opposing other cardrooms/online poker in Washington State?

I think trying to fully understand the opposing point of views would be helpful and may, in fact make your "argument" stronger. 

If I were an unbiased party listening in, I would really want to understand the strongest points for both sides.

Mannes to Rory:
Good points Rory. Hard for me to think of motivations for lowering poker investment other than high operating costs, and perhaps the existing legislation hinders the tribes as well.
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Greg:
Hideaway...on my paper route in Shoreline. Next door was Cliff's card room until 1986.
Great thoughts. Maybe throw in the rise of casual players after 1996 or so that mirrors the rise of wealthy tech-bros in the region (obviously Microsoft and Amazon but includes major a ton of Google, Oracle etc). There was/is nightly games inside a [company] cafeteria that would routinely have $50,000 on the table back in 2005 when I played.

Mannes to Greg:
Thanks Greg, good point to add. Don't think I'll mention [company] by name but just refer to the existence of these games until very recently.
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Steve:
I was part of the early [company] poker tournament and cash game scenes and although they aren't run anymore, would hate to get anyone in trouble by drawing attention to them.  When you have young employees that are single with lots of money and gamble in them, the games can get quite big.  We had legal approval of our home games on campus (generally in 2 cafeterias depending on who was hosting) because there was no rake.  At the peak, there were games every weeknight and sometimes a bigger buy-in deepstack tournament on the weekends.  Those were the days...

Mannes to Steve:
Thanks Steve - interesting that they were legal. I wish we had room somewhere for more tables and we could do this with $0 rake :)
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Neven:
Thank you for sharing. This all sounds good and I want to learn more about this next time I see you.

The only note that I have here is that I would recommend to just be a bit careful when discussing tribal casinos. As we discussed at Rainier, I do believe that only way to relaxation of regulation goes through tribal gaming. One should try not to create enemies (even if everything you said is of course absolutely true).

Mannes to Neven:
Agree - I'll soft pedal and say that we don't have a full understanding of tribal considerations - also that we are all here courtesy of the tribes and not the other way around.
Wish we had someone from the tribal community who understands poker to talk to.

Neven:
And also, as you are probably aware, poker is still 300. Only house-banked games are 400 now (https://app.leg.wa.gov/wac/default.aspx?cite=230-15-135 and https://app.leg.wa.gov/wac/default.aspx?cite=230-15-140 )

Mannes to Neven:
Uh oh. Looks like I misread the whole situation. I thought that "house banked games" also apply to  poker. Damn.
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Josh:
Mannes, I think your observations are accurate.  From what I've seen, the tribal casinos have filled poker room spaces with high-end slots, which produce a greater profit margin.  Most gaming decisions are designed for this purpose (like various blackjack side bets), so clearly they are bringing in more per day or week on slots than what could be obtained in table rakes minus staffing/overhead.  It's interesting why this has happened in Washington while casinos in other states still offer robust poker games + tournaments.  I was in Albuquerque a few months ago and the largest tribal casino had a huge, crowded room, including high limit tables.  And obviously Vegas has plenty of options too, although those casinos offer greater comp incentives to play more.

Another notable situation is the fact that only a few states allow online poker with real money exchanging hands, but Washington is completely at the other end by designating the activity as a felony.  And we might be the only state to do so.  I'm sure if Caesars or a similar large company backed it like they did with sports betting in tribal casinos (only, which is a whole other issue), then we'd see the law change.  Plenty for you to talk about!
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Scott:
One more note about live local poker - I played a Vegas tournament this summer with a big poker producer and he mentioned that he’d love to do a big MTT series in the PNW but none of the current poker rooms can hold 600 players. They would handle the logistics and the dealers but they’d need the facility. Back in the day, the tribal casinos could have opened up a ballroom and a big series like this would fill hotel rooms. 

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Talib: 

Tell them to make it no limit :)

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Carla:

Hi Mannes. I've been bummed that most poker rooms in WA state have closed - most prior to the pandemic.  There are no attractive tournament options.  

A few months ago I decided to make my first trip to Vegas in years with the intent of spending 3 to 4 days playing tournaments and lower stakes no limit

Unfortunately I found most rooms in Vegas have closed as well. The ones that are open rarely run tournaments and those that do are funky structures. 

I realize that this may not be at all relevant to your comments about WA state poker but it's important to notice the trend. I spent a couple of weeks before my trip calling casinos to find out their poker room status and was disappointed day after day. I'd ask why they were closed but never really received answers.  

Just some observations my friend. 

Mannes to Carla:

Thanks Carla!

A bit surprised you didn't find enough variety in Vegas, but it's true that many of the older rooms with lower buyin structures have made place to newer ones (Wynn, Resorts World, Venetian, Aria, Caesar's) that run higher buying tournaments.

The app I use to find tournaments is Poker Atlas.