Tuesday, October 10, 2023

Washington State Live Poker Circa Oct-2023

Message sent to poker players on my home game invitation list, and some of their responses:

I'm soon interviewing for a poker podcast and would like to hear your insights about the state of liver poker in Washington state. Below are my observations but I'd be interested in your remarks so that I can consider them in my interview.

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Historically (up until about 2017-18), legal commercial live poker in WA was offered by both tribal casinos and non-tribal cardrooms, with the larger tribal casinos - Muckleshoot, Tulalip, and Emerald Queen Casino having large enough rooms to offer large sized tournament series. The cardrooms in the Puget sound area - Silver dollar, Caribbean, Hollywood, Red Dragon, Hideaway (anyone remember that one?) were small-sized and limited in their offerings. Many casual players preferred to play at the tribal casinos where they had a better game selection, food and beverage offerings, non-poker activities and great poker tournaments. 

In the 2018-19 period, Muckleshoot and Snoqualmie tribes shut down their poker rooms, inexplicably.

After the Covid pandemic, other tribal properties like Tulalip and EQC failed to re-open their poker rooms as well.

To fill the gap in the market, Fortune (Renton and Lacey), and Palace opened 15-table cardrooms and a few others expanded their rooms. Maverick gaming purchased and modernized a number of commercial cardrooms, includes Aces and Caribbean in the Seattle area.

However, tournament opportunities are still severely limited compared to a decade ago, and there is no indication from the Tribes of imminent re-openings or new investments in poker.

Mainly to blame for this sad state of affairs is the regulatory framework. While the commercial cardrooms fall under state legislation and the state gambling commission, tribal casinos have their own separate framework. Commercial cardrooms operate under the presumption of generating food and drink revenue, with card games as a secondary priority. Every time there is a proposal to raise gaming limits (the most recent being a proposal to go from $300 to $500 per bet), the tribes - although inactive in the commercial cardroom and poker economy - oppose the proposals with the argument that it would encourage "problem gambling". This is a sham and hypocritical, given that they are allowed $500 limits; so their true intent is likely to severely limit legal poker in WA state so that gaming revenue stops bleeding from their casinos to private cardrooms. This is also a short-sighted tactic, since they could just as well re-open their poker rooms and draw in the crowds - if run effectively. So the entire saga seems to be one of poor leadership by the tribes and their inability / lack of knowledge how to profitably run a poker room. Incidentally, the gaming commission eventually compromised and raised the betting limit to $400 effective 9/25/23.

An offshoot of this situation is that illegal and gray-area games - from rake-based tournaments and large private games - are flourishing. No-rake low stake home games of our type are never a problem (aside from the odd Keith-style cheating event), but when people start raking them and large sums of money change hands, that creates inherent risks to the players including running into the commission's crosshairs. As well, the short sighted regulatory environment creates incentive for players to go online, where they are at risk of contravening state laws to the extent of facing felony charges.

All in all this is a sad state of affairs, which should be addressed in the future by a more modern-looking and less puritanical approach to gaming at the state legislative level. Refer to recent legislation in states like New Jersey, Michigan, Delaware to allow online poker and other states like Arizona, Florida, California to raise live betting levels to the extent where (e.g.) in California and Florida you can go all in for unlimited amounts.

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Responses:
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Steve:
I think the tribal casinos continue to be short sighted as you noted on at least two things:

- I think they keep investing in table games instead of poker because they think it's a zero-sum game of gamblers.  If there's no poker room, gamblers are going to have to play table games or slots.  However, I know many poker players that would never play table games (again) because they understand the odds favor the house (and frankly, table games just aren't fun).

- It's my understanding that the tribal casinos had heavily lobbied to make online poker a felony in WA state as they feared it would take players away from their (once existing) live games.  I think the WSOP in 2006 showed that online poker brought in MORE players to live games.  Some people start out online and then want to play live.  Certainly some live players may decide it's more convenient to play online, but live games and online games play very differently and appeal to different folks.  I still believe that legalizing online poker in WA would have brought in more live players over time.
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Rory:
Super interesting stuff. I'm not sure the context of the podcast, but I do think more attention should be given to the other side of the argument to get the full picture. 

Is poker just inherently expensive to operate and as such not a great business for the casino's?

What other reasons do the casinos have for opposing other cardrooms/online poker in Washington State?

I think trying to fully understand the opposing point of views would be helpful and may, in fact make your "argument" stronger. 

If I were an unbiased party listening in, I would really want to understand the strongest points for both sides.

Mannes to Rory:
Good points Rory. Hard for me to think of motivations for lowering poker investment other than high operating costs, and perhaps the existing legislation hinders the tribes as well.
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Greg:
Hideaway...on my paper route in Shoreline. Next door was Cliff's card room until 1986.
Great thoughts. Maybe throw in the rise of casual players after 1996 or so that mirrors the rise of wealthy tech-bros in the region (obviously Microsoft and Amazon but includes major a ton of Google, Oracle etc). There was/is nightly games inside a [company] cafeteria that would routinely have $50,000 on the table back in 2005 when I played.

Mannes to Greg:
Thanks Greg, good point to add. Don't think I'll mention [company] by name but just refer to the existence of these games until very recently.
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Steve:
I was part of the early [company] poker tournament and cash game scenes and although they aren't run anymore, would hate to get anyone in trouble by drawing attention to them.  When you have young employees that are single with lots of money and gamble in them, the games can get quite big.  We had legal approval of our home games on campus (generally in 2 cafeterias depending on who was hosting) because there was no rake.  At the peak, there were games every weeknight and sometimes a bigger buy-in deepstack tournament on the weekends.  Those were the days...

Mannes to Steve:
Thanks Steve - interesting that they were legal. I wish we had room somewhere for more tables and we could do this with $0 rake :)
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Neven:
Thank you for sharing. This all sounds good and I want to learn more about this next time I see you.

The only note that I have here is that I would recommend to just be a bit careful when discussing tribal casinos. As we discussed at Rainier, I do believe that only way to relaxation of regulation goes through tribal gaming. One should try not to create enemies (even if everything you said is of course absolutely true).

Mannes to Neven:
Agree - I'll soft pedal and say that we don't have a full understanding of tribal considerations - also that we are all here courtesy of the tribes and not the other way around.
Wish we had someone from the tribal community who understands poker to talk to.

Neven:
And also, as you are probably aware, poker is still 300. Only house-banked games are 400 now (https://app.leg.wa.gov/wac/default.aspx?cite=230-15-135 and https://app.leg.wa.gov/wac/default.aspx?cite=230-15-140 )

Mannes to Neven:
Uh oh. Looks like I misread the whole situation. I thought that "house banked games" also apply to  poker. Damn.
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Josh:
Mannes, I think your observations are accurate.  From what I've seen, the tribal casinos have filled poker room spaces with high-end slots, which produce a greater profit margin.  Most gaming decisions are designed for this purpose (like various blackjack side bets), so clearly they are bringing in more per day or week on slots than what could be obtained in table rakes minus staffing/overhead.  It's interesting why this has happened in Washington while casinos in other states still offer robust poker games + tournaments.  I was in Albuquerque a few months ago and the largest tribal casino had a huge, crowded room, including high limit tables.  And obviously Vegas has plenty of options too, although those casinos offer greater comp incentives to play more.

Another notable situation is the fact that only a few states allow online poker with real money exchanging hands, but Washington is completely at the other end by designating the activity as a felony.  And we might be the only state to do so.  I'm sure if Caesars or a similar large company backed it like they did with sports betting in tribal casinos (only, which is a whole other issue), then we'd see the law change.  Plenty for you to talk about!
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Scott:
One more note about live local poker - I played a Vegas tournament this summer with a big poker producer and he mentioned that he’d love to do a big MTT series in the PNW but none of the current poker rooms can hold 600 players. They would handle the logistics and the dealers but they’d need the facility. Back in the day, the tribal casinos could have opened up a ballroom and a big series like this would fill hotel rooms. 

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Talib: 

Tell them to make it no limit :)

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Carla:

Hi Mannes. I've been bummed that most poker rooms in WA state have closed - most prior to the pandemic.  There are no attractive tournament options.  

A few months ago I decided to make my first trip to Vegas in years with the intent of spending 3 to 4 days playing tournaments and lower stakes no limit

Unfortunately I found most rooms in Vegas have closed as well. The ones that are open rarely run tournaments and those that do are funky structures. 

I realize that this may not be at all relevant to your comments about WA state poker but it's important to notice the trend. I spent a couple of weeks before my trip calling casinos to find out their poker room status and was disappointed day after day. I'd ask why they were closed but never really received answers.  

Just some observations my friend. 

Mannes to Carla:

Thanks Carla!

A bit surprised you didn't find enough variety in Vegas, but it's true that many of the older rooms with lower buyin structures have made place to newer ones (Wynn, Resorts World, Venetian, Aria, Caesar's) that run higher buying tournaments.

The app I use to find tournaments is Poker Atlas.

Wednesday, June 21, 2023

WSOP 2023 Hand Histories - Deepstack ($800)

 Event 2 - Deepstack, $800 buyin.

3,773 entries, $2.6M prize pool. Half-hour levels.
This is an 8-max event. I am Seat 6. Seat 7 to my left is a young Eastern European, 
Seat 5 to my right is 35-ish American; all others middle aged Americans. 

Level 1, 100/100 blinds with 100 BB ante, 40,000 chips (400 BB)

I didn't play any hands of note at this level.

Level 2, 100/200 blinds with 200 BB ante, 40,200 chips (201 BB)

Seat 4 bust to seat2, QQ v AA 
New Seat 4 is 40-ish American lady, talkative
Seat 3 opens to 2,000, ridiculous sizings
I didn't play any hands of note at this level.

Level 3, 200/300 blinds with 300 BB ante, 41,000 chips (136 BB)

Hand1: KK
Position: UTG=
Under the gun (first Position)
I bet 700, late position calls, button calls, SB folds, BB calls (pot: 3300)
Flop Q X X (I use X when I don't remember, usually low cards)
I bet 2000, only late position calls (pot: 7300)
Turn T
I bet 4500, he calls (pot: 16300)
River is a third diamond
Checked around, I show and win vs J9

Notes: Nothing out of the ordinary here. I hope it's clear why my river check is correct.

Hand2: KK
Position: Middle position
UTG=first position (lady in seat 4) bets 600, Second position calls, I am in 3rd position and raise to 2400, first position calls, second position folds (pot: 6200)
Flop 6 2 X
UTG donks 2000, I call (pot: 10200)
Turn 9
UTG bets 4500, I call (pot: 19200)
River T
UTG bets 3000, I call, show and win, she mucks and says she had JJ.

Notes: Another example of bad-player donking a middle strength hand. I probably should have found flop and/or river raises.

Level 4, 200/400 blinds with 400 BB ante, 57,300 chips (143 BB)

Hand3: KK (not a typo)
Position: Button
Cutoff to my right open bets to 1200, I raise to 3500, BB jams to approx. 22,000, I call and beat 99. His jam of 99 with 52 BB over a 3Bet from a tight player was silly.

Level 5, 300/500 blinds with 500 BB ante, 81,000 chips (162 BB)

Hand4: AK 
Position: SB
Seat 1 new player (middle aged American) opens to 1200, I raise to 4000, he calls (pot: 8800)
Flop A 5 5 
I bet 3500 and he folds.

Level 6, 300/600 blinds with 600 BB ante, 89,800 chips (150 BB)

I didn't play any hands of note at this level.

Level 7, 400/800 blinds with 800 BB ante, 86,500 chips (110 BB)

Hand5: TT
Position: Highjack (two to the left of the button)
Seat 5 to my right jams 13,200, I call, Seat 7 Euro to my left jams and almost covers me, I fold, he had KK and eliminated Seat 5. I dodged a bullet.
New Seat 5 is an older Eastern European or Middle Eastern male.

Hand6: KQ offsuit
Position: Button
Folded to me, I bet 1800, Seat7 Euro in SB raises to 6,000, I think fold.

Note: Given positions, this is possibly a light 3Bet and I should either call and see a flop, or 4Bet. The merit of calling is that h
e hasn't been wild postflop and that should allow me to realize my equity in position. On the flipside, this is the first time he has 3Bet me and so I typically give a first-timer credit.

Level 8, 500/1000 blinds with 1000 BB ante, 69,700 chips (70 BB)

Hand7: JJ
Position: UTG=Under the gun (first Position)
I bet 2200, BB lady in Seat4 calls (pot: 5900)
Flop A 7 7 
Seat 4 donks 4000, I fold.

Note: Again the same lady donked into a much stronger range than hers. Folding is the correct exploit here. Terrible players like this are the reason pros love the WSOP.

Level 9, 600/1200 blinds with 1200 BB ante, 60,200 chips (50 BB)

Hand8: A6 spades
Position: Button
Folded to me, I bet 2600, BB calls (pot: 7000)
Flop 9 8 6
BB checks, I bet 2000, he calls (pot: 11,000)
Turn T
Checked around
River low card (3 or 4)
Checked around and I beat AJ offsuit.

Note: Little point in barreling turn/river here, I have 4th pair and want to get to showdown. 

After this hand, the weak lady in seat 4 busted and was replaced by a middle-aged American, good ole boy.

Hand9: Kd Qh 
Position: Middle position
I bet 2600, BB calls (pot: 7000)
Flop A X X two diamonds
BB donks 3000, I call (pot: 13000)
Turn Th
BB bets 20,000, I fold and he mutters that he flopped two pair and didn't want to get counterfeited (!)

Level 10, 800/1600 blinds with 1600 BB ante, 65,800 chips (41 BB)

Hand10: Ad Kh 
Position: UTG
I bet 3400, third position called, button called, blinds folded (pot: 14,200)
Flop 9d 8d X
I check, third position bet 4000, button folded, I folded.

Note: Depending on the third flop card which I don't recall , this can be a small cBet, especially with the Ad. Having checked, I should have called the 4K bet and seen a turn. 

Hand11: AT hearts
Position: UTG
Early position bet 3400, I called, SB called, BB folded (pot: 13400)
Flop Q 8 3 with two spades
Checked around
Turn non-spade Q
SB bet 3700, early Position called, I folded (pot: 20,800)
River low card
Checked around and SB with 77 beat EP with A4 spades

Level 11, 1000/2000 blinds with 2000 BB ante, 45,800 chips (23 BB)

Hand12: QJ hearts
Position: BB
Cutoff (one right of the button) bet 6000, I called (pot: 15,000)
Flop Ks Js 9x
I check, CO bet 5000, I called (pot: 25,000)
Turn 8x
Checked around
River brick
Checked around and I lose to AJ.

Note: I had a range disadvantage on the flop. When the turn checked, I could have found a river bluff, but people have been calling light at this table. Realizing my J decent kicker seemed correct.

Level 12, 1000/2500 blinds with 2500 BB ante, 26,800 chips (11 BB)

Hand13: KJ clubs
Position: SB
Middle position bet 5300, I jammed, he folded.

Hand14: JT offsuit
Position: Button
Folded to me, I jammed, blinds folded.

Level 13, 1500/3000 blinds with 3000 BB ante, 31,500 chips (10.5 BB)

Hand15: 33
Position: Early position
I jammed and everyone folded.

Hand16: A9 spades
Position: UTG
I jammed and everyone folded.

Hand17: A4 offsuit
Position: BB
Cutoff bet 6000, I called.
Flop missed me, I check/folded to a cBet.

Note: Short-stacked, calling a min-bet in the BB with a potentially strong hand I do not want to jam and get called with, is preferable I think. Cutoff was tight-passive, not a pro.

Hand18: AK offsuit
Position: Cutoff
Folded to me, I jam, BB calls and shows KT
Flop Q J 9
Turn X
River T to give me the nut straight and survive.

Level 14, 2000/4000 blinds with 4000 BB ante, 46,500 chips (11.5 BB)

Hand19: AA
Position: Button
Cutoff to my right 8500, I raise to 20,000 leaving 16K behind, he think-folded.

Note: I would have jammed hands like lower pairs, AJ+. AA is an exploitive just-raise against some players, but he was smart enough to find the fold.

Level 15, 2500/5000 blinds with 5000 BB ante, 47,000 chips (9 BB)

Hand20: KJ spades
Position: SB
Button to my right bet 11,000, I jam 32,000, he calls and shows K6 (!).
Board runout is 6 7 8 T X and I busted.

Note: Opening K6o and then calling off a 6.5BB Jam is splashy play and again one of the reasons the mid-buyin WSOP events are considered soft.


WSOP 2023 Hand Histories - Monster stack

Time for the 2023 WSOP summary. I'll skip most of the "Vegas story" other than to say that the experience gets worse every year. This time, the city streets are under reconstruction for the Formula 1 events in November, and that makes it hard to get around. Also, my wife's wallet was pickpocketed from her zipper-purse at a local Walmart, the staff security showed no interest in looking at camera evidence, and Las Vegas police department were closed for non-911 crime reports during their weekend siesta (and the online report doesn't allow reports of pickpocketing). We're happy to be back home and to civilization.

To the hand histories (tournaments only). I didn't bink the two WSOP bracelet events and will re-think future participation in them. My track record at the WSOP is 0/5 and since I am profitable in the cash games this year, my time may be better invested on the cash tables. 

Event 1 - Monster stack, $1,500 buyin.

8,317 entries, $11.1M prize pool. One-hour levels.

As I write this up, this event isn't quite over - the huge field ended up adding one more day to the event (Day 5), with 7 players still in the running. Joe Cada is 7th in chips.

Level 1, 100/200 blinds with 200 BB ante, 50,000 chips (250 BB)

Hand1: Kd Tc
Position: SB, 6 handed, BB is absent
Player in middle position opens 600, button calls, I call (pot: 2200)
Flop Qc 9c 8x
I check / MP bets 1000/ Button folds, I call (pot: 4400)
Turn Jc
Checked around. Note that the club completes a possible flush, and I have Tc.
River was a fourth low card club
Checked around and I win vs AA

Notes: The middle position player was a young Euro who ended up pushing the table around. His river check with AA was wise, given the runout. Being out of position, I felt that a river check / call was the plan with my T high flush.

Hand2: AQ offsuit
Position: button
Player in middle position (older, assumed tight) opens 600, I raise to 1500, he calls (pot: 3500)
Flop 552
Middle positions donks 1500, I raise to 4500, he calls (pot: 12500)
turn 7? (not sure)
Checked around
River A
Checked around and I show and he mucks.

Notes: I clearly missed a river bet here. MP never has 5X given his turn and river actions.

Hand3: JT spades
Position: BB
Early position same Euro from Hand 1 opens to 1000, SB tank calls, I call (pot: 3300)
Flop QJJ
Checked around
Turn 9
I bet 1200, Euro calls, SB folds (pot: 5500)
River 8
I bet 2500, he think folds.

Notes: my turn and river bets are targeting pair and two-pair hands. I'm not interested in getting stacks in vs possible full houses in Euro's range. 

Level 2, 200/300 blinds with 300 BB ante, 60,400 chips (201 BB)

Hand4: 33
Position: Button
Folded to me, I open to 800, BB calls (pot: 2100)
Flop is A X X (I use X for low cards that I don't remember)
BB checks, I bet 1000, he calls (pot: 4100)
Turn X brick
Checked around
River K
Checked around and I lose to 77

Hand5: 98 spades
Position: Under the gun (first position)
I open to 800, Euro in middle position calls, late position calls, blinds fold (pot: 3200)
Flop A Q X with two clubs
I bet 1500, both call (pot: 7700)
Turn is a third club
I check, Euro checks, late position bets 4500, we fold.

Notes: Opening 98 suited from first position is marginal. My flop bluff is bad against two players whom this board hits pretty well. 

Hand6: Ah Kd 
Position: Button
Middle and cutoff to my right limp 300, I raise to 1600, cutoff calls (pot: 4300)
Flop T X X
Cutoff donks 1200, I call (pot: 7700)
Turn is another low card
Cutoff bets 2000, I fold.

Notes: too many players stack off with AK disregarding the board. Cutoff is clearly a weak recreational player who is trying to protect what is clearly Tx or second pair and he won't fold to a single raise. I need to call and realize my equity. The turn has me drawing thin and so I think I stand by my fold. 

Hand7: AQ offsuit
Position: Cutoff (one to the left of the button)
Same guy from Hand6 to my right, opens to 1600, I call, blinds fold (pot: 4000)
Flop T 7 5 (not sure of the 7 5)
He bets 2000, I call (pot: 8000)
Turn 9
He bets 2200, I call (pot: 12400)
River is J 
He bets 2500, I raise to 11,000, he tank folds.

Notes: I decided to float this hand to realize my equity against this weak player, and the runout allowed me to bluff and represent a straight when he bet 1/5 pot on the river. He likely had KT or similar.

Level 3, 200/400 blinds with 400 BB ante, 57,300 chips (143 BB)

Hand8: QQ
Position: 
Under the gun (first position)
I open to 1000, old guy in cutoff calls, blinds fold (pot: 3000)
Flop K 7 7 
I bet 1000, he raises to 2000, I call (pot: 7000)
Turn 7
I check, he bets 3000, I call (pot (13000)
River J
I check, he bets 2000, I call and lose to KJ.

Notes: His turn and river bet sizes were pretty ridiculous, but when an OMC (old man coffee) bets multiple streets, it should be possible to find a fold even with a decent full house. I just wasn't good enough.

Hand9: 66
Position: 
Cutoff (one to the left of the button)
Folds to me, I open 1000, button is absent, SB and BB call (pot: 3400)
Flop Ks 6s 3x
Blinds check, I bet 1500, SB folds, BB calls. BB is Euro from earlier hands. (pot: 6400)
Turn 7x
A few seconds passed and thinking that Euro checked, I bet 5000. He said he hadn't acted and then checked. I left the 5000 as the bet. He raised to 11,000. I jammed for another approx. 42,000 and he snap called with 54 for a turned straight. I was drawing for the board to pair for a FH/Quads but the river was a 4 and I bust.

Notes: This was an unusual cooler hand. Although 54 suited should be in his BB calling range, there are more hands I beat that he could raise turn with: K7, K6, 76, 33. The only hand I really worried about (and that made sense) was 77. Against a tight player this might have been just a turn call but against Euro I think this was a mandatory jam. 

So, I bust after 3 hours of play, went back to my room, had a short rest and then went to play cash (2/5 at MGM Grand) for a few more hours and got lucky enough to make back my $1.5K buyin and then some more. Tournaments are overrated, meh.







Saturday, October 29, 2022

Deciphering Israeli Politics - November 2022

Planning a family visit to Israel shortly after the November 2022 election, I aim to avoid political discussions with family members and instead will direct them to this post when asked. As an Israeli-Canadian expat living in the USA since 2005 and not experiencing everyday life there, I feel that gives me the ability to view things from a distance and with some detachment. 

Also notably, Israeli citizens residing abroad can only vote if they are visiting Israel at election time - likely a practice set at the time  of Israel's establishment (1948) by the ruling Labour party to exclude the "yordim" - emigrants - who might vote for the opposition parties. Although one could argue for a change in that practice, it would most likely not affect the political balance in Israel - since most expats today are a diverse group reflective of the Israeli general public (with perhaps a slight trend to the left, given the majority of tech workers in that group).

Given that I have the liberty of depicting the parties and individuals in a frank manner, you may either find the opinions I express below educating, funny and/or offensive. Well let's get it on! I like nothing more than a healthy argument, so long as we still respect each other at the end of the day.

To the outsider relying on mainstream media outlets, the recent 4-election stalemate between the Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu camp seems baffling. Most global parliamentary elections, while not granting any party a single majority, do result in some sort of ruling coalition, at least for a period of time. For the past few years though, that has not been the case in Israel, where Netanyahu ruled by default until the May 2021 election in which the Yemina party - a right wing bloc - joined with the Center-left parties to put Naftali Bennett and later Yair Lapid into the driver's seat. Bennett has recently had to dismantle this coalition after the defection of a few of his party members, denying it the majority it needed to continue on. The current election cycle may end in another stalemate, or not.

I'd consider myself (in American terms) a moderate liberal democrat. If I were voting in the US - I am not a citizen here and cannot - it would mostly be for the Democratic party. Nevertheless, I dislike the woke mob that shouts down any seemingly right-wing or non-progressive voices. In particular, the campus-led anti-Israeli sentiments are reprehensive: old-school anti-semitism packaged in quasi-modern terms like "apartheid" and "colonialism". More on that and its impact when I review the Israeli parties below.

Belonging to a modern Orthodox Canadian-born family who immigrated to Israel in 1969, and coming of age through the 1973 Yom Kippur and 1981-1982 Lebanon wars, I eventually ended up in the Israeli center to left-wing camp, unlike most family members who are staunchly on the religious / right side of the political map. While this makes for some tensions and interesting arguments, it never caused a rift in our family. It is worth mentioning that many of the erstwhile moderate religious Israelis, went through a political radicalization process starting with the settlement movement in the late 1970's. This was driven by Rabbis and teachers, disciples of the lake Rabbi Zvi Yehuda Kouk, who viewed the outcome of the 1967 war - the occupation of the West bank, Gaza and Golan territories - as the footsteps and beginnings of a messianic period. I didn't buy into that narrative, instead viewing the settlement movement which I observed closely in the early days, as a fanatical and ultimately dangerous movement that could be disastrous to Israel's future. Fast-forward to 2022, it is still unclear what the final outcome and impact of the settlements will be. 

Let's now take a tour through the various parties and how I view them, in descending order by expected seats in the upcoming election.

Likud - the Netanyanu-led mainstream right wing party, expected to get 30-32 seats or 1/4 of the Knesset. It today includes some defectors from Yemina, who will drive a good portion of the "liberal" Religious public to the Likud. 

In the Israeli religious terminology, "liberal" means that they are supportive of women's and Jewish minority group rights and are not interested in imposing new religious-driven legislation; however that does not extend to their approach to Israeli Arabs and the Palestinian public, whom they describe in insulting and bigoted, if not racist terms. They will vehemently deny the above, claiming that they are only reacting to Palestinian terror and the Israeli Arab's embrace of it; however their language and actions speak otherwise.

Most of the Likud however, is not composed of this group. It appeals to mainstream Israelis, many with a Middle-eastern or North African background, who admire Netanyahu's steadfast positions and refusal to move towards a two-state peace agreement with the Palestinians. This argument was strengthened by the outcome of Israel's 2005 Gaza withdrawal which resulted not in peace but in the Hamas taking over Gaza and hurling rockets at Israel, in a continuous, almost-annual ritual to this day.

Netanyahu himself, a talented and wily politician, speaks from both sides of his mouth. On one hand, he promotes new agreements with Middle-east Arab nations and the social and economic progress of Israeli Arabs compared to their brethren in the region; On the other, internal campaign front, he argues that people should vote for the Likud so that the Arab political parties are kept out of the government, and calls them supporters of terror groups.

The main reason however, that Netanyahu is currently out of power (albeit with a decent chance of returning), is that his former Jewish allies are disaffected with him. In the past, he cobbled a coalition with Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid party, only to antagonize and undermine Lapid - the Finance and later Foreign minister - ultimately firing him. Later, in 2020 he drew Benny Gantz - a former Army Chief of Staff with his own party - into a new coalition with a premiership rotation agreement, only to turn around after a month, dismantle the government and go to a new election, hoping for a majority based on his "fantastic" response to Covid-19 (Israel did have a lower death rate than most countries at that point). In 2021, another close ally - Gideon Sahar, also left to form his own party. In summary, he is distrusted and despised by many former allies. I also believe that he is a narcissist who forms relationships on a functional basis and discards them when no longer useful. While that doesn't differentiate him from many other politicians, he has become a master of the Machiavellian. To somewhat mitigate this harsh assessment - he doesn't have 1% of the evil disposition of Donald Trump who separated thousands of migrant children from their parents and attempted a violent coup-d'etat in January 2021; not to speak of modern-day murderous tyrants like Putin. In the various rounds of violence with Gaza, he usually showed restraint and tried to not harm civilians (a tough ask when bombing a city building). He speaks well at international forums, presenting facts and half-truths in an articulate manner, gaining the trust and admiration of both liberal and conservative influencers. His voters don't see a good alternative - casting his main opponent Yair Lapid and the current PM as a lightweight.

A footnote - my milque-toast view of Netanyahu as a not-great-but-not-that-evil guy might have been different had I been living in Israel. I just don't have enough of the everyday experience to really hate him the way many of his opponents seem to. My brother Avi thinks he's not been given a fair shake by the Israeli media and judiciary, pursuing his corruption case only to have it evaporate with lack of evidence of any serious wrongdoing. But others believe that he's totally corrupt. I'll leave it there without expressing a firm opinion one way or another.

Yesh Atid - Yair Lapid's centrist party, formed in 2012. Quoting https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yesh_Atid: It seeks to represent what it considers the center of Israeli society: the secular middle class. It focuses primarily on civic, socio-economic, and governance issues, including government reform and ending military draft exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox. In 2013, the first election it contested in, Yesh Atid placed second, winning 19 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. It then entered into a coalition led by the Likud party.

Fast-forward to the 2022 elections, Yair Lapid is now transitional Prime Minister as an outcome of his rotation agreement with Yamina (Bennett) in 2021 and the subsequent transition in July 2022. Polls are giving it 24-26 seats in the election and it will be the leading contender to form an alternative coalition to Netanyahu's (aka "the change bloc" in Israeli terms).

Lapid, over the few months of his premiership, has emerged as a composed and restrained leader. A recent flare-up in Gaza was quelled in 3 days (much to his credit) and a newly signed commercial gas agreement with Lebanon (through intermediaries) is a positive, albeit negligible contract in financial terms. 

Despite his shortcomings, I'd likely vote for him if I were in Israel. The knocks on him are:

- He is self-educated (high school dropout, no university education). Israel is a highly "degree-oriented" society where positions of importance are given to established academics, technocrats and military leaders. So this is a perceived weakness for him. In my view, compared to all of his predecessors except Netanyahu, he is smart and a very good communicator so his lack of academic degrees or military cred, means little.

- He isn't really detail-oriented. He was a weak Finance minister with very few achievements to point to (mostly thanks to Netanyahu's undercutting his every initiative).

- While staking mainstream liberal positions (all laudable), he runs Yesh Atid like a fiefdom, with little to no opportunity for alternative leadership in the movement he established. 

Compared to Netanyahu's shortcomings, these seem minimal and he is making progress in Israeli politics. His early hubris has made way to more compromising tactics, such as proposing a power-sharing agreement with Yemina, and Bennett serving first in the role of  PM. Now in the saddle, all he has to do is prevent Netanyahu from getting to 61 seats - and that goal is reasonable given the results of the past 4 elections.

Religious Zionism - Led by Bezalel Smotrich, this is a far-right religious party polling at 14 seats. It is an outgrowth of previous political movements dating back to the 1990s, all opposing any talks with and/or territorial concessions to Palestinians. This time around, it also features Itamar Ben Gvir, an 8-time arrested Kahanist who until recently had a portrait of Baruch Goldstein, the murderer of 39 Palestinians praying in the Hebron Cave of the Patriarchs in 1994, hanging in his living room.

It will be unfortunate (or tragic) if Netanyahu joins with this band of outlaws and racists to form a government. While he would much prefer to have Benny Gantz (further down in the list) in his coalition, that is highly unlikely given the animosity between the two.

How can this party get 14 seats? I wonder. I see it as a failure of the Jewish religious education system. Instead of educating people to love, inclusion and tolerance of all humanity (as the Torah commands), it has gone down the vile snake-pit of fanaticism and darkness, portraying all Muslims as enemies of the Jews. One of them once said to me: "Halacha Esav Sone Le'Yaakov". Translated, this means "Every gentile hates every Jew". Enough said.

The National Unity Party - Led by Benny Gantz, former Chief of Staff is polling at 11 seats. It includes Gideon Sahar's New Hope party as well as Gadi Eisenkot . Sahar is former Likud and Eisenkot was also an army Chief of Staff. There are also some former members of Yamina who joined. It is essentially a moderate-to-right wing party opposed to Netanyahu, expected to join a Lapid coalition. However, given the mercurial nature of Israeli politics, it may end up joining Netanyahu if Religious Zionism's hard-right demands force his hand.

Haredi parties - Shas, Yahadut Hatorah. These are Sephardic and Ashkenazi ultra-orthodox parties. Ever see Jews with long black suits and hats for the males and head-to-ankle clothing for females? That's them. They poll together at 13 seats and usually go with Netanyahu - since their constituents trend right-wing and they absolutely hate Lapid's drive to get more of the Haredi community into the military and mainstream Israeli society.

Israel Beitenu. Polling at 6 seats, this one is a curiosity. Led by Avigdor Lieberman, it is the "party of the Russian immigrants". Formed in the 1990s, it was initially right-wing and mostly ran in elections with the Likud. However, over time Lieberman grew disaffected with Netanyahu (as did pretty much anyone who worked with him - see above) and in the recent elections has teamed up with the centrist-left parties to keep him out of the PM's seat. That pattern is expected to continue after this election cycle.

Left-wing parties - Labor, Meretz. Polling at a combined 8-9 seats, these are the remnants of the Labour - Mapai and Mapam parties that ruled Israel from its 1948 establishment until the first Likud victory in 1977. They were able to get into power for short periods thereafter (notably, with Yitzchak Rabin for the Oslo agreements, Shimon Peres, and Ehud Barak), but have been losing ground due to the growing skepticism in the Israeli Jewish public of peace processes, as well as demographic trends in favor of the religious right wing - who on average have a very high fertility rate - one of the highest in the world. They will be part of any Lapid coalition and will never support Netanyahu.

Ra'am. Polling at 4 seats, is led by Mahmud Abbas. This party originated from the Muslim brotherhood wing of the Israeli-Arab community and focuses on civic Arab matters, looking to improve the everyday lives of its members. Israeli Arabs today comprise 22% of the population and are rightfully demanding equality and recognition of their material needs and political aspirations. Abbas, a jovial and pragmatic politician (dentist by practice), joined the current Israeli government and is expected to continue in that capacity if Lapid is able to form a coalition.

Hadash - Ta'al. Polling at 4 seats, is a merger of the Arab communist party and Arab nationalist parties. It has been outside of Israeli governments and is widely considered a non-starter for coalitions, due to the Palestinian-nationalistic rhetoric of its leaders. However, as said above, anything can happen - and if they can moderate their rhetoric, might find themselves in a Lapid coalition. Or,  it might implicitly support a Lapid coalition by not voting against it.

Balad - likely not to pass the minimal threshold, is an extreme Arab-nationalist party. It opposes the idea of Israel as a Jewish state, and supports its creating a new "binational" state. If it passes the threshold, it will not be invited to join any government, but it might support a Lapid coalition by not voting against it.

The above-mentioned Arab parties ran in the past as a "Joint list" and won 13 seats in the 2015 election. It is regrettable that it disbanded, effectively handing the country to Netanyahu. When asked about this, many Arab citizens say they are disappointed with both Netanyahu and Bennett/Lapid, and their expected low participation level (45%?) in the 2022 elections may well grant Netanyahu his victory.

For a detailed and in-depth perspective of current Israeli Arab politics, listen in to the excellent Israel Policy Forum interview with Muhammad Darawshe at: https://www.buzzsprout.com/115663?client_source=large_player&iframe=true&referrer=https://www.buzzsprout.com/115663.js?container_id=buzzsprout-large-player&player=large#

Summary / Q&A

1. Why do you think Netanyahu is not a good choice for Israeli PM in 2022?

A: If you believe that peace talks with the Palestinians should be delayed as long as possible, then he's your guy. His rationale is that their demands are currently too steep, and that the risk of a West-bank Hamas-led state is too high if a two-state agreement is crafted. He argues that it makes sense to first negotiate with other Middle-eastern states to co-operate on economic and geo-political objectives like curtailing Iran's nuclear program. Once Israel has multiple such agreements, the Palestinians will be forced to come to terms with Israel's existence and power, and will lower their expectations and demands.

The opposing argument - which I support - is that neglecting the Palestinian issue will not buy Israel anything, and will further antagonize its Arab population. The Palestinians are not "our neighbors". Thanks to the settlement movement, they are now us. We share the same land and have to figure out how to live in it together. Since there ultimately must be a peaceful resolution, why have another 50 years of pain and suffering? Might as well get the resolution now - whether a two state solution or another arrangement (like a federal / state setup), it should be civilly negotiated and agreed upon between the sides, as equals. 

2. If Lapid forms a coalition, will there be a settlement with the Palestinians? Or at least a restart to the peace process?

A: Probably not in the next year or two. He will need to rely on too many right-leaning Knesset members to do that. But at least, he will be able to alleviate some of the tensions while tending to civic matters. And hopefully, some day in a future election, get enough support to build a coalition that will allow him to move forward with peace.

3. What are the demographic trends in Israeli politics, and how will they impact future elections?

A: They are generally:

- A steady increase in the ultra-orthodox numbers - their fertility rate is 6.5 children per family and in 10 years they will be about 1/3 of the Jewish population. Compare that to 2.3 children in the general population.

- Increasing participation and influence of Israeli Arabs in society and in particular women. There is a rising number of doctors, nurses, pharmacists, lawyers, judges, community leaders, teachers, musicians and artists, even soccer stars who are questioning why their towns still have poor infrastructure compared to Israeli towns, why they are still portrayed by much of the media as enemies and why they are singled out by security when they show up for travel at Ben Gurion Airport.

- A decline in the secular, liberal sector. A casual tourist to Israel might think otherwise: the proliferation of modern non-kosher restaurants in Tel-Aviv, open on Shabbat; the bikini-clad women on sandy beaches; the vibrant party culture; the openly gay scene; all point to a modern-liberal society. Indeed, many of the Likud supporters are part of it - they are what Americans would call socially liberal and politically conservative people. So don't expect Israel to turn into an Iran-style theocracy any time soon. However, the demographic decline in the secular population will translate into a hardening of Israel toward the Palestinians down the road, if a breakthrough does not occur in the conflict.

4. Why do you reject the academic left's characterization of Israel as an oppressive, apartheid regime? 

A: The progressive wing of the democratic party and their European counterparts are hypocrites. While Israel's treatment of its Arab citizens is problematic and requires improvement, it is a far cry from the former apartheid regime of South Africa. There is no race or religious discrimination allowed in Israeli legislation - and hopefully that will not occur (if it's up to Smotrich and Ben Gvir, it will). The progressives also conveniently ignore other repressive Middle East, North African and Asian regimes, where women, LGBTQ and minority groups are routinely persecuted. With regard to the West Bank and Gaza Palestinians, the settlements have been problematic, given international laws prohibiting the re-settlement of populations into contested territories. But here too, they are applying a double standard: they are trying to force a settlement of the conflict on Israel, likely resulting in even more repression of the Palestinian population. For example, a forced withdrawal of Israel from the West bank would likely put Hamas or the Islamic Jihad into power, and establish strict Sharia laws there. Only a negotiated settlement with a (future) democratically elected Palestinian Authority could produce a good result for everyone.

5. Is Israel a safe place to travel to and visit?

A: Yes. It is a highly modern country with vibrant tourism, great weather, hotels, culinary culture, archaeology, infrastructure, technology and an English-speaking population that is friendly to visitors. Points to consider are:

- Get a rental car in advance and pick it up at the airport. Connect your phone to the local cell network and use Google maps or Wayz to navigate. The roads are modern and right-side driven. 

- The most dangerous part of your visit is driving. The roads are high quality and often congested, and the drivers are hyper-aggressive (think Italy and add some more). Avoid the left lanes of highways unless you are in a hurry. Ignore their honking - they don't mean it personally, it's just a bad habit.

- Both Hotels and AirBnB / VRBO are decent options. Hotel breakfasts are much more generous than the pathetic "continental breakfasts" offered by American chains. The Tel Aviv boardwalk hotels are right by the beach and restaurants - a great option.

- Don't travel to the West Bank (Bethlehem, Nablus, Hebron) on your own. Jerusalem is fine, including the old city.

- Visit in the spring or fall, when weather is best. The summers are brutally hot and humid, except for the hilly areas like Jerusalem and Safed which have a dry heat.

- If you are a wine lover, go to the Northern Galilee and do some wine tasting. You'll be blown away by the quality of their red wines.

- Visit a Druze or Arab town and sample their food offerings. A prime location is Nazareth where you can also visit one of the oldest churches in the world, with amazing murals.






Sunday, August 7, 2022

 2022 WSOP Main Event Write-Up Part 3

This writeup continues on 
2022 WSOP Main Event Write-Up Part 2, picking up from the end of Day 1.

At this year's main event, there were planned to be two Day 2's. The first was going to merge the two first Day 1's (1A, 1B) and the second was going to merge the last two Day1's (1C, 1B). My Day 1 being 1C, I was supposed to be playing Day 2B on Friday, 7/7. However, given the deluge of players on Day 1D (bringing the total to over 8,600 almost a main event record), the powers that be decided to move my flight's Day 2 to Thursday 7/6. That was ok with me, since a wait of two days between Day 1 and Day 2 seemed too much, and in the event that I got through Day 2, having Friday as another break day would be good. Mike A and Scott L, having started on Day 1D, were going to be playing on Day 2B Friday.

My game plan coming into the Day with 21 BB (a 16,800 stack going into Level 6 400/800/800) was to open bet with a tight range, not do any calling except from the BB, and raise-jam any strong opening hand over an initial open. 

My mindset was pretty ok, having played the Sahara 2/3 game the previous evening and making it back to room by midnight for a decent night's sleep.

Here is a summary of the hands played.

Poker  hands (Main Event Day 2): 
________________________________________________________________________

Level 6  - blinds are 400 SB, 800 BB, 800 BB Ante, stack 16,800 (21 BB).

Hand 1
After blinding down to a stack of 13,600 I got AA in UTG (first to act). I opened for 1800 and they all folded.

Hand 2
I picked up 88 in UTG. I open-jammed and late-position bad American reg over-jammed his stack with QQ. I said "nice hand", got up and planned to pack my stuff and leave. The flop came 8XX and people said "not so fast dude". The reg starting moaning about how his QQ's have been terrible this event and didn't stop for another orbit or so. My set held up for a much-needed double up (and more). 

Hand not played
Button open bet 1800, BB raised to 4000, button 10K, BB called.
Flop was Qxx with two spades
Somehow it got all in on the flop creating a 50K+ pot, button had K3ss for a flush draw and BB had AQ. Board ran out two more spades and the K3ss won.

Hand 3
With 23,300 in my stack, I got AKo in the BB. UTG opened for 1800, Button pro called, I called (Pot 6600). 
Flop was T55
Checked to BU, he bet 2000. I called and UTG folded (Pot 10,600)
Turn was a J.
I checked, he bet 3000, I folded.

Analysis
I broke my rule here about jamming strong hands preflop. Yet my stack now at 29BB seemed too deep for an open-jam, and AKo is always good enough to play as a call when last to act. My turn fold seemed tight to me, since I picked up a gutshot on the turn (20% assumed equity) getting 3000 to call into a 16,600 pot, or representing 18%. However - given the paired board I should be removing some equity from my calculation (in case there are hands like A5, K5 in button's range). And at the main event, chip preservation when short-stacked facing a river bet (all else being equal) should be my preferred route.

Hand 4
With 17,700, I got KT offsuit in the cutoff (one right of the button). I opened to 1800, SB and BB called (Pot 6200).
Flop is ATx.
Checked around.
Turn is K
Checked to me, I bet 2500, SB called, BB folded (Pot 11,200).
River is K giving me K's full of T's.
Checked to me, I jam for 13,400, he tank folded.

Analysis
I might have sized slightly larger on the turn to set up less than a pot sized river shove. The rest seems standard.

Hand 5
With 24,600 I got KJhh on the button. HJ pro opened to 1800, I called, blinds folded (Pot 5600).
Flop was Qxx.
Checked around.
Turn was K
Checked to me, I bet 2000, he folded.

We now moved to level 7, 500SB 1000BB 1000BB Ante, I have 26,400 (26 BB)

Hand 6
I get 97ss on the button.
Folded to me, I opened 2100, SB called, BB folded (Pot 6200).
Flop is Jd 7x 5d.
Checked around.
Turn is J.
BB bets 2800, I call (pot 11,800)
River was a non-diamond 4.
Checked around and I won against A4dd.

Analysis
This was an (at least somewhat interesting) hand. 97ss is probably the worst suited connector I'd open in that spot. My middle pair flop begs for a check-back. Opponent bet turn correctly. If he had jammed river, I would have had to fold. Well played for a much-needed chip up!

Up to 30,800 I then proceeded to lose a few small pots - missing flops and folding.

Hand 7
I got KQo UTG, bet 2100, button and BB called (Pot 7800).
Flop was AKx.
Checked around.
Turn 5
Checked around.
River low card.
BB check, I bet 2300, they folded.

Hand 8
With 27,000 I got AKo in middle position and bet 2100, BB called (Pot 5700).
Flop is TT9.
Checked around.
Turn 9.
Checked around.
River 8.
Checked around and I lost to J9.

Analysis 
I lost the absolute minimum here with a hand that whiffed the flop. Opponent should have led the river - that was a head scratcher and perhaps he was counting on me to bluff the river. Not much more to say.

Hand 9
With 25,500 I got JThh UTG. I bet 2100, SB and BB called (Pot 7300).
Flop is K65
Checked around.
Turn is 6.
Blinds checked, I bet 2400, SB folded, BB called (Post 12,100).
River brick, checked around and I lost to A9.

Analysis 
I should be cbetting this flop at a decent frequency, since it was better for my range and totally missed my hand (as opposed to QQ, A6 that might check back). If / when they call I should be giving up. My delayed-cBet is a common strategy designed to lower the chances of a non-paired opponent hand continuing. Apparently BB didn't get the memo.

Hand 10
I picked up 65cc in the BB. Button bet 3000, SB called, I called (Pot 10,000).
Flop is 974 giving me an open ended straight draw.
SB bet 6,000, I tank folded and button folded.

Analysis
This was a spot to jam the flop. I still had some fold equity with about 19K behind and if called, had an assumed 30%-ish equity. Chip preservation won out here over correct play.

Hand 11
With 16,300 I got KJcc UTG and bet 2100. Middle position with 25,000 shoved, I folded.

Hand 12
With 14,200 I got KJcc (again) in the Hijack (two off the button). UTG bet 2200, I called, blinds folded (Pot 6900).
Flop is TT9
UTG bet 3000, I folded.

Hand 13
I got AA in middle position, I shoved, they folded.

Hand 14
With 14,500 I got A4ss in the BB. Middle position bet 2500, late position called, I called (Pot 9000).
Flop was 974 all no spades.
I checked, middle position bet flop, LP called, I folded and then he jammed the turn.

Hand 15
With 8000 in my dwindling stack, I got QQ in the cutoff and open jammed. SB re-jammed for a bit more with AKo, spiked a King on the flop and I was out.
__________________________________________________________________________

Epilogue

After busting the main event in mid-afternoon, I realized that I had not been feeling too well for the past few hours (and I made sure to mask up during play). I headed to my room and chilled / rested, playing online for a while until bedtime.

Friday, both Mike A and Scott L played their Day 2's. Mike, coming into Day 2 with a good stack, made it through most of the day and bust. Scott made it through the entire Day 2 and into Day 3 (Saturday), where he unfortunately also exited just short of the money.

Being quite ill, I spent the rest of my Vegas stay in my room, venturing out to pick up meals and to the Pharmacy for medicine. By Sunday and heading back home in the late afternoon, I felt much better but made sure to N95 mask up during the flight, not opening it even for a drink. Having to struggle with a rude overweight dude for arm-rest space the entire flight, made a fitting end to this visit!

Regrets? Absolutely not, this was a real bucket list thing for me and there is no tournament atmosphere like the WSOP main event.
Will I do this again? Probably not, although I will be back at the WSOP to play smaller events, e.g. $1,500 going to a max 3 Days. The main event is truly an endurance test for my age group (let's just say 55+) and doesn't make any financial sense.

Friday, August 5, 2022

2022 WSOP Main Event Week Writeup Part 2

2022 WSOP Main Event Write-Up Part 2

This article is mainly focused on my poker hand histories from Days 1-2 of the 2022 WSOP No-limit Holdem event, held at the Paris-Bally's convention centers between July 3 - 16, 2022. See Part1 of this series for a writeup of the few days preceding the main event.

If you're bored with the details of my comings and goings there, skip straight to the hands (in between solid lines). Vice versa, if bored with poker, skip them.

Morning of July 5th, I woke around 9:30 and skipped the gym routine - wanting to be 100% ready for the long day ahead with enough sleep under my belt. My breakfasts were pretty simple throughout - a bowl of keto granola and coconut milk I had brought with me, chilling it in the ice bucket. Then, decaf coffee at the hotel counter, pouring it into my Zojirushi mug and slipping into the side of my Ogio backpack - playing the perfect "poker geek" role. 

Showing up to my table on time, we were 5 handed to start. People were trickling in slowly and it would take some time for it to fill up. The table to my right featured Daniel Negreanu, his usual jovial self with a host of cameras and railbirds tracking his every uttering and action. Mike A showed up shortly thereafter and took these shots:


As you can see from the photo below, 6-handed there were 4 good pros (two of them French crushers, both sponsored by the same Euro-outfit), one Fishy American and myself. Bad table draw!! 



The 4 Pros you see in the picture, plus myself and maybe one other person, were the only ones that survived Day 1 from this table. The other seats - 3, 5,7 - were populated by a series of 6 chaps who busted through the day. The last person on seat 7 (not in the picture) did survive by folding AA on a J high board about 45 minutes before day's end, avoiding a bad beat to JJ.

Poker  hands (Main Event Day 1): 
________________________________________________________________________

Hand 1

At Level 1, 100 SB / 200 BB / 200 BB Ante.

I have the opening stack, 60,000.
I pick up AKhh in the big blind(5 handed). 
Hijack opens to 500, cutoff (to his left) and button call, SB folds, I raise to 2500, HJ folds, CO calls, BU folds. We will go to the flop heads up with me out of position.
Pot size is 6100.
Flop is QQT (didn't note suits, but no Flush Draw).
Check / Check.
Turn is A.
Check / Check.
River is 4
Check / Check I show and win.

Analysis: Out of position with AK, this is a clear flop check. If you don't know why, contact me for fish-coaching :). The turn is arguably a bet by me - however note that Button's flop check-back does not necessarily remove Qx from his range. Also note that Button is one of the French pros and perfectly capable of big-bluffing. So I like my turn check. The river check is too nitty. Once he checks back turn, he probably doesn't have much but reasonably enough to call a small river bet like 1/3 pot. 

Hand 2

Still at level 1, stack size approx. 63,000
I get 87dd on the button.
One limp from the field, I raise to 700, blinds and limper call (pot 3000)
Flop K8X
They check to me, I bet 1000, they fold.

Analysis: 87 suited is hand I could have considered over-limping the button with. It's pretty much the only position I'd ever enter with a limp. And the limp from the field is not insignificant - it will likely call a raise and be ahead on most flops. However, the raise should "clean up" my equity and fold out the blinds - which it clearly didn't in this case. Still, the K high flop favors my range and should be cBet whether or not I "have it" - the fact that I flop second pair just adds to my incentive. Since this is a high-frequency bet, it should be bet fairly small by my entire range. 

Hand 3

Still at level 1, stack size 65,800, 6 handed
I pick up JJ in the Hijack (2nd off the button)
UTG (who is also Lojack just to my right) bets 600, I raise to 2000, cutoff to my left calls, button and blinds fold, UTG calls. Pot is 6500.
Flop is 974. 
UTG checks, I bet 2000, they both call. Pot is now 12,500.
Turn is a Q.
UTG checks, I check, cutoff bets 8,000 and we both fold.

Analysis: I may have butchered this one on the flop. While I think I still have a range advantage, they have the nuts advantage (more 77, 44 in cutoff's range than and UTG also has 77). My flop bet is motivated more for equity denial than anything else (I hate many turn cards like Q, K, A and even T and 8 that give me gutshots fill many draws). Against two opponents, it's kind of meh, since they're getting great odds with all broadways that missed. And since my Cbet frequency on this board is low, if I do bet for equity denial and value, it has to be much larger. Honestly I'm still torn between a larger bet and checking, which may be better. From the turn onward, I think the play is straightforward. Given the flop action, with UTG still to act after me, a fold is the only play that made sense to me.

Hand 4

Still at level 1 and with 60,400, I pick up 66 on the button. It folds to me and I open for 500.
SB folds and BB calls.
The flop was Q7x with two hearts (I don't have one). Pot size 1300.
Checked around.
Turn is a 6!
BB check, I bet 2000, he calls. Pot is now 5300.
River 7h.
BB check, I bet 5000, he raises to 22,000, I snap-call and lose to Q7 who flopped 2P and rivered a higher full house.

Analysis
Psychologically, this was the pivotal hand of the event for me. Although it dropped me to 35,900 chips leaving me still with 180 BB, it was a gut punch that took a bit to recover from. Luckily, I didn't raise the river. If the river had not been a 3rd heart, I might have even folded to his re-raise.

With regard to bet sizing, I think mine was ok. Overbet the turn (150% pot) for value and pot-sized bet on the river was targeted at hands that just made trip 7's or flushes.

Daniel Negreanu on the next table, encountered a similar spot later in the day when he flopped 77's full against QQ's full and lost 90% of his stack, effectively busting him. 

Hand 5

With 34,200 in my stack, I picked up AdQh in the lowjack position (3 off the button). By now, the table was 8-handed. Early position opened to 600, I 3bet to 2000, button called, SB called, BB (aggro French pro) 4bet to 12,200, everyone folded.

Analysis
While at this point in the event I normally won't have a 5Betting spot, a jam here with AA would be fun. But AQo with 161 blinds behind won't invest another 51 of them just to see a flop against a likely TT+, AQ suited, AK, A5 suited range, on which I have 34% equity. This hand also illustrates the difficulty of my table draw - even though I 3Bet from mid-position, I could not get to see a flop with a fairly premium hand.

Hand 6

With 31,700 in my stack, I picked up AK offsuit in middle position. Early position opened to 600, I 3bet to 2000, folded to him and he called. Pot is 4,500.
Flop T85
Checked around.
Turn A
He checked, I bet 2000, he called. Pot is 8,500.
River Q.
Checked around, I show and win.

Analysis
Even though I won this hand, I had some doubts about my river play - instinctively I felt like I missed value. So this hand warrants a deep-dive. 
- I like the flop check back with air - because it favors his range and I want to realize my equity.
- I like the turn bet and sizing is ok, could even be bigger like 60%-70% pot. This is where I end up ultimately getting value in this pot.
- Anecdotally, I disliked my river check-back. But let's unpack it a bit using basic math. EP who opened and called my 3Bet is a bit of a goofball who had been playing too many hands. Instead of the "normal" 10%-15% opening range from EP, let's give him 20% of hands or 260 combos. When I bet 44% pot on the T85A board, he is theoretically folding only about 1/3 of his range. But realistically with the turn A and a street to go (giving me leverage), he has to fold all of his missed hands, leaving him with perhaps 100 combos. Of those 100 combos, with the river Q about half of them have improved to a better hand than mine. So betting here is lighting money on fire. Why do I think he has about 50 "good combos"?

KJ:16, J9s:4, AQ:6, AT:6, A8s:2, A5s:2, QT:9 = 45

OK - so he can only win with 45/100 or 45% of his range. He'll probably call more than that (50% is minimum defense frequency for a pot sized river bet). The problem is that if he folds half of his range, the part that calls mostly beats me. So I shouldn't bet the river (some high level - fancy play is to bet something like 10% pot forcing him to call 90% of the time and therefore breaking even or better on the extra bet).

To confirm this, plugging his wide range into GTO+ and following the hand as played, AK is a river check 100% of the time.

Hand 7

With 36,000 in my stack, I pick up AQ offsuit in UTG1 (second to act). UTG (first to act) a very
good French pro, opens to 600. I raise to 2000, folds to him and he calls. We go to the flop with a 4500 pot.
Flop is AKT
Checked around.
Turn is 4
He checked, I bet 2000, he folded.

We now moved to level 2, 200 SB, 300 BB, 300 BB Ante. I have 38,700 or 130BB.

Hand 8

I picked up 88 in the Highjack (two off the button). There was a limp-call from early position and I raised to 1100. The BB and limper called. We go to the flop with a 3800 pot.
Flop is 543, Checked around.
Turn is 2
Players checked to me, I bet 1500 and they folded. 

Analysis
I repped an Ace on the turn and actually had value. What more to say?

Hand 9
With 41,000 now in my stack (rebuild mode), I picked up AJo in middle position. Early position (same from previous hand, goofball who plays too many), bet 700. I raised to 2100 and he called. We go to the flop with a 5000 pot.
Flop is KJx.
Checked around.
Turn was a low card.
He checked, I bet 1500, he called. Pot is now 8000.
River was another low card.
Checked around, I show and win.

Analysis
I won so I played it well right? But seriously, once he checks the turn my Jack is often good for a small value bet. Checking the river was wise given all the Kx he can show up with.

Hand 10
Things were now looking up. With 44100 in my stack, I got A9dd in cutoff (right of the button). Early position goofball opened to 700, I raised to 2100, SB good pro with a 20K stack raised to 5000. Folded back to me. I consider calling but end up folding due to domination by higher Aces and effective stack shallowness. 

Hand 11
With 39600, I got AThh in the BB. UTG bet 800, Cutoff (same goofball who opens/calls a lot) called, I raised to 3500, they both called. We go to the flop with a 11,000 pot!
Flop is an ugly 995.
Checked around.
Turn is 8.
I bet 5000, UTG folds, Cutoff calls. Pot is now 21,000.
River is a 4.
Checked around, we show and I lose to AQ.

Analysis
I tried stealing this pot twice and failed. Goofball/ fish refused to give up. If I had bombed the river he was maybe folding, but it would have to be large (15K+) and I couldn't pull the trigger. Goofball ended up busting not too long after that.

Hand 12
With 30,600 in my stack I got KJ offsuit in the BB. UTG opened to 800, SB called and I called. Pot is 2700.
Flop is Q9x.
UTG bet 1000, SB called and I called. Pot is now 5700.
Turn is 4.
Checked around.
River is 8. 
I check, BB bet, and we both folded.

We now moved to Level 3: SB 200, BB 400, BB Ante 400.

Hand 13
With 28,300 (71 BB) I picked up AK offsuit in middle position. Early position (good French pro) opened for 1000, I raised to 3000, he jammed (covers me by a lot) and I snap called. He had AKo as well and we chopped. 

Hand 14
Same stack, I picked up AKss in the BB. Lojack limp called 400, Hijack raised to 1500, SB called, I called, Lojack called. Pot is 6400.
Flop is T62 with two clubs, no spades.
Checked around.
Turn is A.
SB checked, I bet 4000, Hijack called. Pot is 14,400.
River is 5 (not a club).
I bet 7000, Hijack folds.

Analysis
The main decision point in this hand for me was preflop. Facing a suspect limp from MP, then a raise and a call, if 3Betting I'd have to raise to about 4.5X the HJ's raise (6750). This table's history did not indicate that such a raise, committing almost 25% of my stack, would get through them. So I opted to go for a multi-way pot with a hand that will often smash the flop and be fairly disguised. I also didn't mind strengthening my calling range from the BB - it doesn't always have to be capped with hands weaker than AK.

Flop checks were standard (I did expect a cbet from HJ); Turn bet by me was standard; HJ must have hung around with a draw like KQ, KJ or Tx. River bet 50% pot was also standard from out of position. 

Hand 15
With 34,600 I got A8hh in the Lojack. UTG opened to 1000, I called, blinds called. Pot is 4400.
Flop is Q97 with one heart.
Checked around.
Turn was Th giving me a flush draw.
SB bet 3500, I called, the others folded. SB is an American pro-type, who in Hand 4 almost stacked me FH over FH. Pot is 11,400. 
River was a 3x brick.
SB bet 2500, I decided to bluff raise to 10,000 and he snap called with 99 (set of nines).

Analysis
What was I repping with my river bluff? KJ, QT, 77 and that's about it. I certainly wasn't trying to fold out 2-pair or better, but SB's small river bet looked weak. In reality, he just thought he might get a crying call from one of my middling hands that would have called turn. 

Hand 16
With 16,500 in my stack after my failed bluff and a few rounds of blinding down, I got AQ offsuit in middle position. Early position opened to 1000, I 3Bet to 3000, he jammed, I folded.

Analysis
34 BB seemed too deep to call off with AQ. I was probably against a range that was ahead of me - EP's opening/4Betting range from EP was tight enough.

We now moved to Level 4: SB 300, BB 500, BB Ante 500.

Table is now full - 9 players
I went card-dead for a long time and blinded down to 8000 chips (16 BB).

Hands 17-18
I got AQ and AK, shoved both and was folded to. 

Hand 19
I got QQ in UTG1. I opened to 1200, folded to French pro - chip leader on button who jammed, I called and beat 99. Afterwards he remarked "maybe I should have just called there, your opening range is very tight" and I said "probably".

We now moved to Level 5: SB 300, BB 600, BB Ante 600.

Hand 20
With 20,300 in my stack, I got AKss on the button. UTG tight player opened to 1500, I raised to 4000, he called. Pot is 9500.
Flop is Axx.
I jammed, he folded and showed JJ.

Analysis
33 BB is a bit deep for a preflop jam (although he would have likely called). But being the table short-stack, I may have missed a golden opportunity to double up here.

I then blinded down to 19000 (on the way I called a raise from the BB with A5 and folded after missing the flop).

Hand 21
I picked up JJ in the SB. Cutoff (French pro chip leader) opened to 1400, I 3Bet to 5000, he folded.

Hand 22
With 21600, I got Q8 offsuit in the BB. Cutoff (French pro chip leader) opened to 1400, I called. Pot is 3700.
Flop is 976.
I checked, he bet 1400, I called. Pot is 6500.
Turn is 4.
Checked around.
River K.
Check around and I lost to J7 offsuit.

Analysis
In this formation and at this stack depth, is Q8o strong enough to call from the BB, even getting great odds? QTo or even Q9o may be the borderline. The problem is also my opponent, who will play perfectly post-flop. Having flopped an open ender, in hindsight I could have jammed the turn - my pair outs were also good (at least I could expect the Q to be). I
 was surprised by his open of J7o - I guess as chip leader he figured he could run over the table. 

Hand 23
With 17,900 in my stack, I got 55 in middle position. Chip leader in early position opened to 1400, I called, late position called, BB called. Pot is 6500.
Flop is 822.
Early position bet 3600, we folded.

Hand 24
With 16,500, I got AKdd in the BB. UTG opened for 1500, folded to me, I jammed, he folded.

Hand not played
With 18,000 I got 97o in the BB. UTG opened for 1500, late position called, I folded. Flop was 975. The original raiser had A9 and a FD on the turn so I missed that one (seemed like every time I called I was missing and every time I folded I would have tripled up!). Relative to hand 22, my holding was weaker but with a call ahead of me I might have considered the odds (calling 900 into what will be a 5400 pot represents 17% equity which any two cards has much more than. I estimate my 3-way equity there at about 25%-30%).

I ended Day 1 with 16,800, meaning 21 BB going into day 2 (next level is 400/800/800). Not yet critically short but starting the circle the drain. Nevertheless, I was ok with most of my play and happy to have avoided stacking off in the cooler hands I encountered.
__________________________________________________________________________

Day 1 Dinner Break

Between levels 3 and 4 of Day1, there was a 75-minure dinner break. Mike A informed me that another friend, Scott L was also at the event and would join us for dinner - the more the merrier! The three of us met up at the Burger Brasserie at Paris (nearby the main event area) and since I was the first to play Day1, brought them up to date on the day's happenings. 

The next post in this series will describe Day 2 hands played and the remainder of my trip. 











 




Tuesday, August 2, 2022

2022 WSOP Main Event - Runup Days - Part 1

This post is of my experience in Las Vegas, Jul 2022. Part 1 is a depiction of the first couple of days, preparing for the WSOP Main event and playing a mega-satellite. It also includes some hand histories.

If you're bored with the details of my comings and goings there, skip straight to the hands (in between solid lines). Vice versa, if bored with poker, skip them.

This year, a friend (Mike A) and myself decided to both enter, and rail / support each other as far as we survived the event. For the uninitiated, this is a $10K Poker tournament with over 8,000 entrants, considered the largest tournament of the year in the poker world - although there are other events with much higher buy-ins or more participants, this is the one that garners one of the highest prize pools, has the highest name recognition and is on the bucket list of many players. It pays the top 9 players $1M+, with $10M going to the winner this year. While I don't play many tournaments these days, I have dreamt of playing this event for years and didn't think my skills fell short of the average general player pool. I generally spend a lot of my spare time thinking, studying and playing poker so I figured I was ready for this.

I decided to head over to Vegas on Sunday July 3rd, actually one of the starting days of the event. There were 4 starting days this year - July 3,4,5,6 - and my game plan was to play a "Mega-Satellite event" on July 4th, and play the main event Day1 on July 5th. The Satellite is basically a mini-tournament with a lower buyin ($1,100), paying the top 10% finishers $10K towards the main event.

Contrary to past trips, I discouraged Tali (wife) from joining, given the logistics of this event and the long days / nights ahead. You typically start play at 11:00am and end at 11:30pm. It would also keep my mindset in poker 100% without distractions (although she is a good travel partner in that respect). Mike A also traveled on his own.

My selected hotel was Cromwell, just across from Bally's and a less than 10 minute walk from the poker tables. Cromwell is a decent, small-sized establishment sandwiched between Bally's and Flamingo - catering to a middle class, party-going client base, their main draw being Drai's night club and pool club. The booking made well in advance, I snagged a week's stay at a very good price and requested a quiet room well away from the rooftop club. This worked fairly well, despite some booming noises pulsating through the building at all hours - that subsided after the weekend.

Mike decided to stay at Paris, and so our meeting points would be visiting each other at the tables (roped off to the side) for a few minutes, getting a table for dinner during breaks and sharing hands that went down through the event. He would just be arriving July 5th and his Day1 would be Wednesday July 6th - one day after mine.

For the Satellite registration, I headed over to the WSOP registration room upon landing at my hotel, only to discover after a 20-minute wait that they only take Satellite registrations on the same day. Standing behind me in line was Erik Persson, the infamous CEO of Maverick gaming, who some of us have seen taking the fight (aka verbal abuse and middle fingers) to Phil Hellmuth on a recent PokerGo High Stakes Cash Game. Maverick is the owner of most of the poker cardrooms in the Northwest. He looked as douchey in person as on TV, albeit shorter - perhaps 5'10" like me. One person in line was fawning over him saying what a great job he had done on the show, and Persson mentioned that another series will come next year. I also heard him quietly saying to his lady partner that Patrick (Antonius), the famous player he's been touring some of his cardrooms with, is a "sheep". Hmm I wondered, would he say that to his face?

Heading back to my hotel, I dropped into Istanbul, a hole-in-the wall Mediterranean fast food joint amongst the stretch of outdoor eateries just outside of Bally's. I had what must be the best Shwarma chicken wrap in my life and returned there for every meal I was going to eat on my own.


On Monday (July 4th) before heading out to the WSOP, I went to the hotel gym and after a few minutes this guy walked in. I had to do a double-take - it was Hussain Ensan, the winner of the 2019 main event (German, Iranian born 58 year old guy). I left him alone and then before exiting the gym, asked him if it's indeed him, and we had a nice chat. Really nice fellow. He has gained a few pounds though since his win (he's a fit guy), but I guess that's what $10M will do for you.

At Bally's around 10:15 am, I lined up for the Satellite registration, in the actual ballroom the event was to be held in. Imagine an airline hangar and you will get a sense of how vast these rooms are - holding hundreds of tables and thousands of players at a time. 

In the line, a 70-ish old guy in front of me looked worried and then started going through his wallet, realizing he was short $100 to buy into his event. I thought here goes, he's going to ask for a "loan", but instead he asked if I could hold his place in line so he can go to his room and get the money. Sure, I said, I got you. 10 minutes later he was back and we chatted through our wait. Turns out he's a Jewish fella from Montreal, currently living in Victoria, BC. Very chatty, always on the phone, answering with "Shalom" (which I found a bit strange). 

Arriving to the registration booth, I suddenly realized I HAD ALSO FORGOTTEN my money pouch and will need to go to my room to retrieve it from the safe. So, it was his turn to hang around and keep my spot. I raced to the room and back, sweating like a pig (changed shirts in the room) with my pulse at 170. It took my heart rate over an hour to settle back to normal.

The satellite table looked to me like easy pickings, with the guy to my left looking confused and saying he really doesn't know how to play these things. Nevertheless, despite having a decent chip count early on, I experienced the "dead zone" we get into quite often in poker - getting bad cards for an extended period, missing flops when we enter them with playable cards, or the worst - ending up with a second-best hand. So I did not make the cut in this one.

Poker hands (Mega-Satellite): 
________________________________________________________________________

Here are a few hands from the Satellite: there were about 475 entries, with 48 players cashing. 20-minute levels which meant this would be over within 6-7 hours at most. 

My plan for the satellite was to Elephant-hunt and go for large pots only with nutted hands post-flop. I would let the fish fight over small pots, which usually are not of much consequence in this type of event. You're not trying to win, just to get enough chips to make it into the top 10% (which dictates a significant difference in strategy compared to normal events).

Hand 1

At level 2, blinds are 100 SB, 200 BB, 200 BB Ante, I have 11,500 chips.
I picked up AK offsuit in the small blind.
Middle position raised to 400, I decided to just call.
The flop was K and two low cards.
It checked around.
Turn was another low card, I bet 400 and he folded.

Analysis: AK in the small blind is "normally" a large raise over a single open. I should be mostly raising to ~1400-1600 in that spot, expecting to be called quite often. My rationale in just calling was not wanting to play a large pot out of position early on in the event. At this point I had 11,500 chips, or under 60 BB.

Hand 2

Same level, I picked up AA in early position.
I bet 400 and late position raised to 1200. After some thought, I re-raised to 3900 and he asked me a few questions (I was stone faced) and then he speech-folded, saying if this were later in the event he'd pay me off.

Analysis: I might have raised smaller (like to 3200) to get more calls, but since my (very few) bluffs want him to fold and my value wants a call, my polarized sizing out of position works fine.

Hand 3

Same level, KQ diamonds, I bet 400 from the field and got one caller. The flop came KXX, I bet and he folded. Routine.

Then, AT hearts in middle position, I bet 400, big blind called.
Flop was A55.
I decided to check, he bet 400, I called.
Turn was 9.
Check / check.
River was a low card.
Check / 800 / I called and lost to A9. 
Nice hand sir!

At this point my stack was still ok, 10,500. 

Hand 4

I went dead for over a half hour and into Level 4 with blinds at 200 / 400 / 400 and only 8800 chips.
I got A3 offsuit in the BB.
Under the gun bet 800, folded to me, I called.
Flop A and two unconnected middle cards.
Check / 1200 / I called. While unhappy, am hoping to get to showdown with no further betting.
Turn was a J. Pot is now 5000.
Check / 2000 / I folded.

Analysis: I was not trying to get all in with top pair, no kicker. In retrospect: with the current big blind ante structure, when in the big blind and there is a single raise, I am calling an additional 1 BB into what will be a 5.5 BB pot. While A3 is a good hand to put into a defensive range (it has more than the requisite 18% equity), it won't realize its equity on most runouts. So - in a satellite event with 22 BB, it may be correct to fold and preserve chips. Ergo as played, even though I made top pair, I bled 4 BB and had to fold the turn. A better play might have been to 3Bet preflop (blocking Ax hands).

Hand 5

At level 5, 300 / 600 / 600 I was down to 6600 chips (11 BB) to start.
I got KJ spades in middle position and open shoved.
Confused rec player to my left said he had no idea what to do in this spot and tank-folded (later saying he had AQ). BB called with 99. I spiked a J and doubled up.

Hand 6

Later at that level, with 11,300 chips, I got 66 in early position. I opened to 1200 and the BB called. The flop was JTT. Checked through. Turn 5. He checked, I bet 1200, he called. River low card. He bet 2500 and I folded.

Analysis: 66 in a satellite with 19 BB in early position is a fold. I was splashing around and once the JTT board hit, the caller had a range advantage.

At level 6, 500 / 1000 / 1000 I had 8500 chips coming in. I bust at that level - my notes don't say what that hand was - to the best of my recollection it was something like AQ running into a pair.

________________________________________________________________________

OK, so on to the main event! But prior to that, the satellite ended at around 3:30 pm. I lined up to register for the main event (almost an hour - thanks (NOT) to the WSOP for poor management). Back in the hotel room after the obligatory chicken wrap, I deposited to WSOP.COM for legal online play when you are visiting in Nevada, and spun up a small cash game. Oddly, the games I found were 50NL (blinds are $0.50) and lower, or 200NL ($2 blinds. I played the 50NL for a while, then spun up some sort of tournament and turned in early enough for a good night's sleep towards the main!