End Game
As of this writing, the world seems to have gone mad. Russia v Ukraine, Hamas v Israel and God knows what else history (or maybe China?) has in store for us. This piece attempts to put some sort of narrative together to interpret the Israel/Hamas conflict and to outline what the future may bring.
The pain of 239 innocent hostages being held by Hamas in Gaza for over a month, including children, elderly people and even a pregnant woman who has given birth in captivity, should be in the minds of anyone thinking of or discussing this issue. It is unprecedented in civilized humanity and is truly medieval in its cruelty and savagery.
Disclaimer
I’m a Canadian/Israeli living in the USA since 2005. I am not a Middle-East expert, journalist, researcher or anything similar. The observations and opinions below are my own and are subject to revision given that we live in a rapidly changing world where it seems that we absorb new information daily. Also, whether you are an Israel-supporter or Israel-basher the content herein may be of interest to you, but if you are of the latter group, I consider you an adversary (if not outright enemy). I'll be distributing this article to a limited list of people, but if you're one of the recipients, please feel free to remark or correct anything in it.
Where We Are
At the time of writing (Nov 19, 2023), Israel is in the midst of a military ground operation in Gaza, aimed at dismantling the Hamas organization and/or its military capability. This, in wake of the horrific 10/7 massacre (aka "Black Saturday") carried out by the Hamas terrorists in quasi-ISIS/Nazi style acts. If you classify Hamas as “militants”, meaning that these are an oppressed people in a resistance struggle, then you are one of the “useful idiots” serving the purposes of the world’s Evil Axis. More on the Evil Axis below.
While we don’t yet know the outcome of this operation, it
was clear from the onset that it was going to be a very tough one. It’s really hard to
uproot a quasi-military organization from within a civilian population, more so
when it’s entrenched in a very large tunnel system including underground bases. The resulting Gazan civilian casualty count is tragically high, some due directly to military operations and others indirectly due to the humanitarian crisis (lack of basic supplies, food and medical care). The fact that Hamas operates from within civilian buildings and installations is the main cause of this tragedy, since Israel does not intentionally target civilians. It is also notable that while Hamas has ample supplies of food, water and fuel in its underground tunnels, the hospitals and population above those tunnels are not given any of them (as far as we know).
Israel is also facing an escalation from the Lebanese,
Iran-driven Hezbollah terror group in the North. It has over 100,000 missiles pointed at all parts of Israel (some guided and accurate), and that threat with the low-intensity
fighting has so far been effective in driving most of the Northern Israeli
population out of the border towns.
How Did We Get Here and What To Do?
A deep understanding the history of the Israel / Palestine conflict its various turning
points and the strategies (both successful and failed) of the parties, is
beyond the purview of this piece. I suggest Jack Carr's Interview
with Jonathan Schanzer as a good starting point for the history of terror organizations
in this part of the world.
Below is an attempt to summarize in brief, the positions and “narratives” of the various stakeholders / parties / media outlets both international and local.
The Outside View
Mainstream Media (MM)
The Mainstream Media comprises of CNN, BBC, other
liberal/democratic media in the Western world. Their narrative (simplified) has
been :
- Hamas conducted horrific, barbaric attacks on Israel on Black Saturday.
- Israel responded with disproportionate brutality, causing the deaths of thousands of civilians (and "militants" - Hamas doesn't distinguish between them in its body counts).
- Although Israel has “the right to defend itself”, it should agree to cease fires with Hamas so that humanitarian concerns can be addressed in Gaza. Better still, if Israel would cease all fire indefinitely so that Hamas can re-arm for the next round of hostilities. CNN and BBC differ in this regard, the former presenting a more balanced perspective and the latter being more hostile to the Israeli position and repeating Hamas lies without adequate fact-checking (ex: the false "Hospital bombing" report).
- The fact that Hamas holds 239 hostages in Gaza and could be pressured by an extended military campaign to release them, is reported but is not connected to the need to continue and put military pressure on Hamas for their release.
- Although Hamas was out of line, the Palestinian resistance movement writ large can be justified by Israel’s generation-long occupation of the West Bank and refusal to engage in a meaningful peace process. They call Hamas members “militants” as opposed to “terrorists”.
- The poor Gazans have been living in an open-air prison for decades. They conveniently ignore the history that Gaza was vacated by Israel in 2005, followed by a violent overthrow of the Fatah movement in Gaza by Hamas, after which it started attacking Israel with rocket fire on repeated occasions.
- They have lots of ideas for Israel and what it should and shouldn’t be doing vis-à-vis Hamas. Notably, the mostly-friendly Thomas Friedman (NY Times) seems to think he acts as a proxy for the Biden administration’s messaging about Israel’s way forward in this conflict, claiming that ultimately, Israel must now concede that a two-state solution remains the only viable long-term solution for the Israelis and Palestinians.
The Woke Campus Left / Social Media Influencers and Celebrities
The Woke Campus Left mainly resides in Ivy league and liberal arts educational institutions in the Western world. During my lifetime, they have bought into a Marxist vision that views the world as “Oppressed” and “Oppressor” peoples and nations. There is a mountain of literature that elaborates on this point, but for the purposes of this article, it will suffice. Their messages are:
- Israel was born from oppression, as a colonialist creation. It is now a de-facto Apartheid state.
- The Palestinians have been systematically oppressed since the creation of Israel.
- No matter what we see on our screens, Israel is always in the wrong and should be the subject of sanctions.
- We show our virtue by joining the Palestinians in their demonstrations against Israel worldwide.
- We show no sympathy to the Israeli hostages held by Hamas. We only show sympathy to the Gazan civilians who are being “butchered” by Israel (ignoring / denying their use as human shields by Hamas).
- Going forward, Israel should either disappear or become one merged Jewish/Arab country, details of which are murky. It should trust the Palestinians to then cease hostilities against Jews.
- More on the moral decrepitude of the Woke Campus Left at Atlantic Article by Tom Nichols.
- A funny Israeli Satire video about the Columbia U students.
The Conservative Media and Silent Majority
Countering the Mainstream Media and Campus Left voices, is a silent (or not too vocal) majority of folks who see things otherwise. Media standouts of this group have been Piers Morgan (UK) and Bret Stephens (USA). Their view is that:
- Terror organizations like Al Qaida, Taliban, ISIS, Hamas, Hezbollah all drink from the poison well of state-sponsors like Iran, Russia, and sometimes less-known actors like North Korea, Yemen, Qatar etc.
- The appeasement of these organizations leads to all sorts of trouble and mayhem worldwide.
- Israel has tried time and again to negotiate peace deals with the Palestinians. The result – every time – has been rejection, hostility and war.
- Israel should clean house (its internal business) and deal with its terrorist enemies. It should be helped in any reasonable way, including and up to deploying USA carrier groups in the East Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf.
- Going forward, it isn’t clear that there should be a two-state solution – it should be up to the parties to negotiate but only after the terror groups are disarmed.
- A sampling of Piers Morgan tearing into a person proud of removing hostage posters in LA. Also his interview of Dr. Jordan Peterson.
The Inside View
The Israeli Right
The Israeli Right wing comprises of the parties that
together, assembled the most Right-wing / Religious coalition government in Israel’s
history.
Their views – derived from social media posts and
conversations (including family members):
- Hamas with this attack, has not only shown its hand, but has also revealed what the vast majority of Palestinians desire – the total annihilation of Israel and genocide of its Jewish population. Or in other words, a realization of the Nazi vision 78 years after the end of WWII. In fact, copies of Hitler’s “Mein Kampf” were found in Hamas classrooms during the current operation. Hamas has 80% popular support in the West Bank and Gaza.
- Black Saturday is attributed to the failed “left wing” policies of pursuing a peace process and appeasement – despite right-wing governments being in power for most of the past 2.5 decades. There is a bit of interesting rationale around this – the key premise being that the Israeli elite – via its Supreme court system, military and supporting media – have hindered the right from realizing its agenda (sounds a bit far-fetched given the steady progress of settlement activity and the recent “judicial reform” initiative, but that’s their opinion).
- Israel must fight its enemies to the death. Civilian casualties – collateral damage – while not an operational objective, are not that terrible since the Gazan children are taught hatred from their mothers and are the future terrorists we’ll have to deal with.
- The Israeli parties and individuals calling for Bibi Netanyahu’s resignation are hurting the war effort and playing into Hamas’ and Iran’s hands. After the war, there will be an inquiry and he may have to resign, but internal strife on this point is counter-productive right now.
- Going forward, there isn’t a viable “partner for peace” – the PA itself is no better than Hamas, not having condemned its acts and failing to shut down Hamas’ operations in the West Bank (Israel having to do this by itself). The best we can hope for is to create deterrence by destroying the terror groups, have an Israeli military presence in both West Bank and Gaza, and offer the Palestinians who choose to live in peace, a peaceful existence while running their affairs internally without a state apparatus.
- Fundamentally, Israel has a right to sovereignty over the entire land (Eretz Israel) - both from the Bible and from a reading of ancient Jewish history. The West Bank is disputed territory and there never has been an indigenous Palestinian nation. Israel should continue settling the entire land and opposition be damned. That is also the way to project power to our neighbors so that they will live with us civilly.
The Israeli Center
The Israeli Center mainly comprises of centrist parties led
by Benny Ganz, Yair Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman and Labour. The Ganz party has joined the
government in a national emergency coalition, for the duration of the current
war.
Its positions (with minor variations between the parties) are:
- The failure of Israel to protect its citizens on 10/7 was both military and political. Netanyahu failed in his job and should admit his failure and resign when the campaign is over. Numerous intelligence reports coming from field operatives and scouts passed up to the higher echelons, were ignored. More to come when the full inquiry is conducted.
- The timing of Black Saturday was driven by an imminent Saudi / USA / Israel deal. Hamas since the 1990’s has consistently strived – with some success – to blow up peace initiatives. Iran is operating behind the scenes here.
- They are on board with eliminating Hamas and Hezbollah. In fact, Hezbollah is the greater mid-term threat. We should always keep in mind the fate of our hostages while doing so, and be willing to negotiate for their release, including accepting humanitarian pauses and temporary cease fires.
- Most of the Arab world, and a minority of the Palestinians, privately want Hamas to be eliminated. They won’t speak up for fear of being murdered – and Hamas / Islamic Jihad have always been brutal in quieting dissenting voices. We should still seek out friendly, non-violent parties from within the Palestinians, for a dialog on security and civil matters.
- The claim by the right wing that criticism of its government and is playing into the enemy’s hands is clearly ridiculous. The Israeli military includes people from all walks of life and opinions, and political discourse won’t impact its operations. From a PR aspect, the right wing has pretty much done all in its power to destroy Israel’s reputation abroad – not least by appointing incompetent people to official PR positions.
- Going forward, Gaza should not be ruled by Israel and ideally, a reformed PA (Palestinian Authority) or an international entity could take responsibility for its civilian affairs – much like Area B of the West Bank where Israel is allowed to operate militarily when required.
- They believe should co-operate with the USA in mapping out a future for the post-Hamas war, inasmuch as it doesn't curtail Israel's ability to disable Hamas and (in the future) strike out at the Hezbollah / Iran Axis of Evil.
The Israeli Left
There are some remnants of the Israeli left wing parties, amongst
them Arab-majority parties focused on Arab-Israeli affairs. Ra’am (led by the widely
respected Mansour Abbas) was a member of the previous Israeli government and is
a standout in that it is also considered conservative in civil matters.
- While I haven’t been closely following the discourse on this part of the political map, it’s safe to say that many in the Israeli left are disappointed by the worldwide reaction to the conflict and in particular the Campus Left. Some of the murdered and captured Israelis on Black Saturday, residents of the villages on the Gaza border, were peace movement members who interacted with Gaza residents including providing transportation to and from local hospitals for medical treatment.
- Going forward, the Left will mainly align with the Center in attempting to remove Bibi from office and in trying to steer the country towards more pragmatic positions.
- It also is likely that it invest less energy into pro-Palestinian initiatives – perhaps aside from members of the Israeli-Arab Muslim community who will tend to sympathize with them.
- On the whole, the Left sides with the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank/Gaza and views the current conflict as an outgrowth of a failed strategy to expand West Bank settlements, not provide the Palestinians with a political future and generally provoke them to hostility (e.g. by walking onto the Temple Mount, seen as a threat to the integrity of the Al Aksa mosque).
My View?
I’m an interested observer who is also emotionally involved in this story. A dispassionate view now is difficult, but perhaps useful as both a coping mechanism and as a means of providing hope for the future.
- Until 10/7 I was (and am still) generally aligned with the Israeli Center (see above for their positions). However, that Center is shifting to the point of no longer supporting a two-state solution in the near term. A recent intra-Palestinian survey by AWRAD (Arab World for Research & Development), puts support for 10/7 and Hamas at 76%. It now appears that there will be no political resolution in the foreseeable future, and that Israel will be fighting on multiple fronts against Hamas and Hezbollah terrorism, requiring a military presence in both Gaza and potentially, Southern Lebanon.
- I’m appalled by the Woke Campus Left – nothing new there, I never really liked them, but I as many of my fellow Jews did not expect this level of vitriol from them. As a consequence, I will now tend to ignore their noise, demonstrations and messaging. Many of them are good old Anti-Semites in “Woke” disguise – a noxious potion.
- I’m disappointed with the Mainstream Media reaction on the whole – with some exceptions. I’ve cancelled my Seattle Times subscription, after they systematically avoided any editorial defense of Israel and leaned too heavily towards critical reporting (much of it based on Hamas lies).
- I dislike the positions of the Israeli right - in my opinion they have the wrong idea. Isolationism and Messianism do not equal nation-building and my hope is that they will be in the minority in a future election (unlikely given the Israeli demographics). It also does not help Israel's position when prominent cabinet members deny that there is a humanitarian issue in Gaza and/or that civilian deaths are not Israel's concern.
- There is an alarming rise in provocations in the West Bank by settlers against Palestinians, sometimes even to the point of shooting at innocents. This must be stopped and the perpetrators arrested and brought to trial. Nevertheless, the vast majority of West Bank hostilities are carried out daily by both Fatah and Hamas and just random Palestinians, towards the settlers. The West Bank should be cleansed of Hamas - which IDF is currently doing.
- While a peaceful two-state solution looks impossible now, there will need to be some sort of negotiated settlement both in Gaza and the West Bank, at least at the civilian level. I recommend following the Israel Policy Forum for great content, podcast, lectures and educational seminars on that topic.
Questions and Answers
Peace Out
[1] In 1929,
Hebron Palestinians murdered over 67 Jews – their peaceful neighbors - following
rumors that Jews were planning to seize control of the Temple Mount in
Jerusalem. Sound familiar? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1929_Hebron_massacre
