Planning a family visit to Israel shortly after the November 2022 election, I aim to avoid political discussions with family members and instead will direct them to this post when asked. As an Israeli-Canadian expat living in the USA since 2005 and not experiencing everyday life there, I feel that gives me the ability to view things from a distance and with some detachment.
Also notably, Israeli citizens residing abroad can only vote if they are visiting Israel at election time - likely a practice set at the time of Israel's establishment (1948) by the ruling Labour party to exclude the "yordim" - emigrants - who might vote for the opposition parties. Although one could argue for a change in that practice, it would most likely not affect the political balance in Israel - since most expats today are a diverse group reflective of the Israeli general public (with perhaps a slight trend to the left, given the majority of tech workers in that group).
To the outsider relying on mainstream media outlets, the recent 4-election stalemate between the Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu camp seems baffling. Most global parliamentary elections, while not granting any party a single majority, do result in some sort of ruling coalition, at least for a period of time. For the past few years though, that has not been the case in Israel, where Netanyahu ruled by default until the May 2021 election in which the Yemina party - a right wing bloc - joined with the Center-left parties to put Naftali Bennett and later Yair Lapid into the driver's seat. Bennett has recently had to dismantle this coalition after the defection of a few of his party members, denying it the majority it needed to continue on. The current election cycle may end in another stalemate, or not.
I'd consider myself (in American terms) a moderate liberal democrat. If I were voting in the US - I am not a citizen here and cannot - it would mostly be for the Democratic party. Nevertheless, I dislike the woke mob that shouts down any seemingly right-wing or non-progressive voices. In particular, the campus-led anti-Israeli sentiments are reprehensive: old-school anti-semitism packaged in quasi-modern terms like "apartheid" and "colonialism". More on that and its impact when I review the Israeli parties below.
Belonging to a modern Orthodox Canadian-born family who immigrated to Israel in 1969, and coming of age through the 1973 Yom Kippur and 1981-1982 Lebanon wars, I eventually ended up in the Israeli center to left-wing camp, unlike most family members who are staunchly on the religious / right side of the political map. While this makes for some tensions and interesting arguments, it never caused a rift in our family. It is worth mentioning that many of the erstwhile moderate religious Israelis, went through a political radicalization process starting with the settlement movement in the late 1970's. This was driven by Rabbis and teachers, disciples of the lake Rabbi Zvi Yehuda Kouk, who viewed the outcome of the 1967 war - the occupation of the West bank, Gaza and Golan territories - as the footsteps and beginnings of a messianic period. I didn't buy into that narrative, instead viewing the settlement movement which I observed closely in the early days, as a fanatical and ultimately dangerous movement that could be disastrous to Israel's future. Fast-forward to 2022, it is still unclear what the final outcome and impact of the settlements will be.
Let's now take a tour through the various parties and how I view them, in descending order by expected seats in the upcoming election.
Likud - the Netanyanu-led mainstream right wing party, expected to get 30-32 seats or 1/4 of the Knesset. It today includes some defectors from Yemina, who will drive a good portion of the "liberal" Religious public to the Likud.
In the Israeli religious terminology, "liberal" means that they are supportive of women's and Jewish minority group rights and are not interested in imposing new religious-driven legislation; however that does not extend to their approach to Israeli Arabs and the Palestinian public, whom they describe in insulting and bigoted, if not racist terms. They will vehemently deny the above, claiming that they are only reacting to Palestinian terror and the Israeli Arab's embrace of it; however their language and actions speak otherwise.
Most of the Likud however, is not composed of this group. It appeals to mainstream Israelis, many with a Middle-eastern or North African background, who admire Netanyahu's steadfast positions and refusal to move towards a two-state peace agreement with the Palestinians. This argument was strengthened by the outcome of Israel's 2005 Gaza withdrawal which resulted not in peace but in the Hamas taking over Gaza and hurling rockets at Israel, in a continuous, almost-annual ritual to this day.
Netanyahu himself, a talented and wily politician, speaks from both sides of his mouth. On one hand, he promotes new agreements with Middle-east Arab nations and the social and economic progress of Israeli Arabs compared to their brethren in the region; On the other, internal campaign front, he argues that people should vote for the Likud so that the Arab political parties are kept out of the government, and calls them supporters of terror groups.
The main reason however, that Netanyahu is currently out of power (albeit with a decent chance of returning), is that his former Jewish allies are disaffected with him. In the past, he cobbled a coalition with Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid party, only to antagonize and undermine Lapid - the Finance and later Foreign minister - ultimately firing him. Later, in 2020 he drew Benny Gantz - a former Army Chief of Staff with his own party - into a new coalition with a premiership rotation agreement, only to turn around after a month, dismantle the government and go to a new election, hoping for a majority based on his "fantastic" response to Covid-19 (Israel did have a lower death rate than most countries at that point). In 2021, another close ally - Gideon Sahar, also left to form his own party. In summary, he is distrusted and despised by many former allies. I also believe that he is a narcissist who forms relationships on a functional basis and discards them when no longer useful. While that doesn't differentiate him from many other politicians, he has become a master of the Machiavellian. To somewhat mitigate this harsh assessment - he doesn't have 1% of the evil disposition of Donald Trump who separated thousands of migrant children from their parents and attempted a violent coup-d'etat in January 2021; not to speak of modern-day murderous tyrants like Putin. In the various rounds of violence with Gaza, he usually showed restraint and tried to not harm civilians (a tough ask when bombing a city building). He speaks well at international forums, presenting facts and half-truths in an articulate manner, gaining the trust and admiration of both liberal and conservative influencers. His voters don't see a good alternative - casting his main opponent Yair Lapid and the current PM as a lightweight.
A footnote - my milque-toast view of Netanyahu as a not-great-but-not-that-evil guy might have been different had I been living in Israel. I just don't have enough of the everyday experience to really hate him the way many of his opponents seem to. My brother Avi thinks he's not been given a fair shake by the Israeli media and judiciary, pursuing his corruption case only to have it evaporate with lack of evidence of any serious wrongdoing. But others believe that he's totally corrupt. I'll leave it there without expressing a firm opinion one way or another.
Yesh Atid - Yair Lapid's centrist party, formed in 2012. Quoting https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yesh_Atid: It seeks to represent what it considers the center of Israeli society: the secular middle class. It focuses primarily on civic, socio-economic, and governance issues, including government reform and ending military draft exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox. In 2013, the first election it contested in, Yesh Atid placed second, winning 19 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. It then entered into a coalition led by the Likud party.
Fast-forward to the 2022 elections, Yair Lapid is now transitional Prime Minister as an outcome of his rotation agreement with Yamina (Bennett) in 2021 and the subsequent transition in July 2022. Polls are giving it 24-26 seats in the election and it will be the leading contender to form an alternative coalition to Netanyahu's (aka "the change bloc" in Israeli terms).
Lapid, over the few months of his premiership, has emerged as a composed and restrained leader. A recent flare-up in Gaza was quelled in 3 days (much to his credit) and a newly signed commercial gas agreement with Lebanon (through intermediaries) is a positive, albeit negligible contract in financial terms.
Despite his shortcomings, I'd likely vote for him if I were in Israel. The knocks on him are:
- He is self-educated (high school dropout, no university education). Israel is a highly "degree-oriented" society where positions of importance are given to established academics, technocrats and military leaders. So this is a perceived weakness for him. In my view, compared to all of his predecessors except Netanyahu, he is smart and a very good communicator so his lack of academic degrees or military cred, means little.
- He isn't really detail-oriented. He was a weak Finance minister with very few achievements to point to (mostly thanks to Netanyahu's undercutting his every initiative).
- While staking mainstream liberal positions (all laudable), he runs Yesh Atid like a fiefdom, with little to no opportunity for alternative leadership in the movement he established.
Compared to Netanyahu's shortcomings, these seem minimal and he is making progress in Israeli politics. His early hubris has made way to more compromising tactics, such as proposing a power-sharing agreement with Yemina, and Bennett serving first in the role of PM. Now in the saddle, all he has to do is prevent Netanyahu from getting to 61 seats - and that goal is reasonable given the results of the past 4 elections.
Religious Zionism - Led by Bezalel Smotrich, this is a far-right religious party polling at 14 seats. It is an outgrowth of previous political movements dating back to the 1990s, all opposing any talks with and/or territorial concessions to Palestinians. This time around, it also features Itamar Ben Gvir, an 8-time arrested Kahanist who until recently had a portrait of Baruch Goldstein, the murderer of 39 Palestinians praying in the Hebron Cave of the Patriarchs in 1994, hanging in his living room.
It will be unfortunate (or tragic) if Netanyahu joins with this band of outlaws and racists to form a government. While he would much prefer to have Benny Gantz (further down in the list) in his coalition, that is highly unlikely given the animosity between the two.
How can this party get 14 seats? I wonder. I see it as a failure of the Jewish religious education system. Instead of educating people to love, inclusion and tolerance of all humanity (as the Torah commands), it has gone down the vile snake-pit of fanaticism and darkness, portraying all Muslims as enemies of the Jews. One of them once said to me: "Halacha Esav Sone Le'Yaakov". Translated, this means "Every gentile hates every Jew". Enough said.
The National Unity Party - Led by Benny Gantz, former Chief of Staff is polling at 11 seats. It includes Gideon Sahar's New Hope party as well as Gadi Eisenkot . Sahar is former Likud and Eisenkot was also an army Chief of Staff. There are also some former members of Yamina who joined. It is essentially a moderate-to-right wing party opposed to Netanyahu, expected to join a Lapid coalition. However, given the mercurial nature of Israeli politics, it may end up joining Netanyahu if Religious Zionism's hard-right demands force his hand.
Haredi parties - Shas, Yahadut Hatorah. These are Sephardic and Ashkenazi ultra-orthodox parties. Ever see Jews with long black suits and hats for the males and head-to-ankle clothing for females? That's them. They poll together at 13 seats and usually go with Netanyahu - since their constituents trend right-wing and they absolutely hate Lapid's drive to get more of the Haredi community into the military and mainstream Israeli society.
Israel Beitenu. Polling at 6 seats, this one is a curiosity. Led by Avigdor Lieberman, it is the "party of the Russian immigrants". Formed in the 1990s, it was initially right-wing and mostly ran in elections with the Likud. However, over time Lieberman grew disaffected with Netanyahu (as did pretty much anyone who worked with him - see above) and in the recent elections has teamed up with the centrist-left parties to keep him out of the PM's seat. That pattern is expected to continue after this election cycle.
Left-wing parties - Labor, Meretz. Polling at a combined 8-9 seats, these are the remnants of the Labour - Mapai and Mapam parties that ruled Israel from its 1948 establishment until the first Likud victory in 1977. They were able to get into power for short periods thereafter (notably, with Yitzchak Rabin for the Oslo agreements, Shimon Peres, and Ehud Barak), but have been losing ground due to the growing skepticism in the Israeli Jewish public of peace processes, as well as demographic trends in favor of the religious right wing - who on average have a very high fertility rate - one of the highest in the world. They will be part of any Lapid coalition and will never support Netanyahu.
Ra'am. Polling at 4 seats, is led by Mahmud Abbas. This party originated from the Muslim brotherhood wing of the Israeli-Arab community and focuses on civic Arab matters, looking to improve the everyday lives of its members. Israeli Arabs today comprise 22% of the population and are rightfully demanding equality and recognition of their material needs and political aspirations. Abbas, a jovial and pragmatic politician (dentist by practice), joined the current Israeli government and is expected to continue in that capacity if Lapid is able to form a coalition.
Hadash - Ta'al. Polling at 4 seats, is a merger of the Arab communist party and Arab nationalist parties. It has been outside of Israeli governments and is widely considered a non-starter for coalitions, due to the Palestinian-nationalistic rhetoric of its leaders. However, as said above, anything can happen - and if they can moderate their rhetoric, might find themselves in a Lapid coalition. Or, it might implicitly support a Lapid coalition by not voting against it.
Balad - likely not to pass the minimal threshold, is an extreme Arab-nationalist party. It opposes the idea of Israel as a Jewish state, and supports its creating a new "binational" state. If it passes the threshold, it will not be invited to join any government, but it might support a Lapid coalition by not voting against it.
The above-mentioned Arab parties ran in the past as a "Joint list" and won 13 seats in the 2015 election. It is regrettable that it disbanded, effectively handing the country to Netanyahu. When asked about this, many Arab citizens say they are disappointed with both Netanyahu and Bennett/Lapid, and their expected low participation level (45%?) in the 2022 elections may well grant Netanyahu his victory.
For a detailed and in-depth perspective of current Israeli Arab politics, listen in to the excellent Israel Policy Forum interview with Muhammad Darawshe at: https://www.buzzsprout.com/115663?client_source=large_player&iframe=true&referrer=https://www.buzzsprout.com/115663.js?container_id=buzzsprout-large-player&player=large#
Summary / Q&A
1. Why do you think Netanyahu is not a good choice for Israeli PM in 2022?
A: If you believe that peace talks with the Palestinians should be delayed as long as possible, then he's your guy. His rationale is that their demands are currently too steep, and that the risk of a West-bank Hamas-led state is too high if a two-state agreement is crafted. He argues that it makes sense to first negotiate with other Middle-eastern states to co-operate on economic and geo-political objectives like curtailing Iran's nuclear program. Once Israel has multiple such agreements, the Palestinians will be forced to come to terms with Israel's existence and power, and will lower their expectations and demands.
The opposing argument - which I support - is that neglecting the Palestinian issue will not buy Israel anything, and will further antagonize its Arab population. The Palestinians are not "our neighbors". Thanks to the settlement movement, they are now us. We share the same land and have to figure out how to live in it together. Since there ultimately must be a peaceful resolution, why have another 50 years of pain and suffering? Might as well get the resolution now - whether a two state solution or another arrangement (like a federal / state setup), it should be civilly negotiated and agreed upon between the sides, as equals.
2. If Lapid forms a coalition, will there be a settlement with the Palestinians? Or at least a restart to the peace process?
A: Probably not in the next year or two. He will need to rely on too many right-leaning Knesset members to do that. But at least, he will be able to alleviate some of the tensions while tending to civic matters. And hopefully, some day in a future election, get enough support to build a coalition that will allow him to move forward with peace.
3. What are the demographic trends in Israeli politics, and how will they impact future elections?
A: They are generally:
- A steady increase in the ultra-orthodox numbers - their fertility rate is 6.5 children per family and in 10 years they will be about 1/3 of the Jewish population. Compare that to 2.3 children in the general population.
- Increasing participation and influence of Israeli Arabs in society and in particular women. There is a rising number of doctors, nurses, pharmacists, lawyers, judges, community leaders, teachers, musicians and artists, even soccer stars who are questioning why their towns still have poor infrastructure compared to Israeli towns, why they are still portrayed by much of the media as enemies and why they are singled out by security when they show up for travel at Ben Gurion Airport.
- A decline in the secular, liberal sector. A casual tourist to Israel might think otherwise: the proliferation of modern non-kosher restaurants in Tel-Aviv, open on Shabbat; the bikini-clad women on sandy beaches; the vibrant party culture; the openly gay scene; all point to a modern-liberal society. Indeed, many of the Likud supporters are part of it - they are what Americans would call socially liberal and politically conservative people. So don't expect Israel to turn into an Iran-style theocracy any time soon. However, the demographic decline in the secular population will translate into a hardening of Israel toward the Palestinians down the road, if a breakthrough does not occur in the conflict.
4. Why do you reject the academic left's characterization of Israel as an oppressive, apartheid regime?
A: The progressive wing of the democratic party and their European counterparts are hypocrites. While Israel's treatment of its Arab citizens is problematic and requires improvement, it is a far cry from the former apartheid regime of South Africa. There is no race or religious discrimination allowed in Israeli legislation - and hopefully that will not occur (if it's up to Smotrich and Ben Gvir, it will). The progressives also conveniently ignore other repressive Middle East, North African and Asian regimes, where women, LGBTQ and minority groups are routinely persecuted. With regard to the West Bank and Gaza Palestinians, the settlements have been problematic, given international laws prohibiting the re-settlement of populations into contested territories. But here too, they are applying a double standard: they are trying to force a settlement of the conflict on Israel, likely resulting in even more repression of the Palestinian population. For example, a forced withdrawal of Israel from the West bank would likely put Hamas or the Islamic Jihad into power, and establish strict Sharia laws there. Only a negotiated settlement with a (future) democratically elected Palestinian Authority could produce a good result for everyone.
5. Is Israel a safe place to travel to and visit?
A: Yes. It is a highly modern country with vibrant tourism, great weather, hotels, culinary culture, archaeology, infrastructure, technology and an English-speaking population that is friendly to visitors. Points to consider are:
- Get a rental car in advance and pick it up at the airport. Connect your phone to the local cell network and use Google maps or Wayz to navigate. The roads are modern and right-side driven.
- The most dangerous part of your visit is driving. The roads are high quality and often congested, and the drivers are hyper-aggressive (think Italy and add some more). Avoid the left lanes of highways unless you are in a hurry. Ignore their honking - they don't mean it personally, it's just a bad habit.
- Both Hotels and AirBnB / VRBO are decent options. Hotel breakfasts are much more generous than the pathetic "continental breakfasts" offered by American chains. The Tel Aviv boardwalk hotels are right by the beach and restaurants - a great option.
- Don't travel to the West Bank (Bethlehem, Nablus, Hebron) on your own. Jerusalem is fine, including the old city.
- Visit in the spring or fall, when weather is best. The summers are brutally hot and humid, except for the hilly areas like Jerusalem and Safed which have a dry heat.
- If you are a wine lover, go to the Northern Galilee and do some wine tasting. You'll be blown away by the quality of their red wines.
- Visit a Druze or Arab town and sample their food offerings. A prime location is Nazareth where you can also visit one of the oldest churches in the world, with amazing murals.
