Showing posts with label poker. Show all posts
Showing posts with label poker. Show all posts

Saturday, August 7, 2021

Midsummer week's dream

As a certified poker addict, a Vegas visit has to be on my itinerary for at least one week in a travel-permissive year. This came true in 2021 at least for the spring and summer periods, whence our CDC sages declared the pandemic in retreat (later to be retracted). Given my wife's and my recent vaccinations and generally healthy disposition, I was able to convince her to accompany me to a week in the hot and muggy, tentatively inviting sin city. All in order for me to bring offerings to the poker gods and hope to escape with some sort of profit, or at least a few good poker hands to share.

Since the World Series of Poker in its live incarnation will only be taking place in the fall of 2021, I instead targeted the alternate tournament series running in July - the Venetian deepstacks. The buyins, guarantees and target population all seemed right, and the excessive rake justifiable, if not from an EV (expected value) point of view, then at least from an entertainment value standpoint. And who of us has not been jonesing for some live, fun tournament play?!

A sweetener was being able to book both our flights with the long-lost airline points we had had no opportunity to use over the preceding 18 months. Scouring the travel sites for a good hotel deal, I landed on Vdara, the companion Aria property offering the benefits of no casino and a convenient location. I'd considered the Alexandria Tower at Sahara - a recently renovated property - but was somehow dissuaded by a TripAdvisor review complaining of thin walls and noise from one room to another. 

Deciding not to rent a car for this stay (we wouldn't be moving around much), the trip out to LV from Seattle and Uber to the hotel went smoothly. We punched in an online hotel checking, bypassing the long lines at reception and landed in our first room. Tali (wife) and I have a running joke that she always wants to reject the first room given to us, but in this case I quickly realized it had to be rejected. It smelled poorly and there were visible human stains on the sofa and carpet area. Hmm I thought Vdara was supposed to be a high-end property... after a few calls to front desk and a 20 minute wait, we were moved to a "nicer" room. Except that within a few minutes, I noticed the bathroom sink draining slowly (later to be entirely blocked) and that the water coming out of the faucets was only hot. A couple of other Vdara gems (if you plan on going): they don't operate the gym mid-week, and their Starbucks franchise is closed most of the time. On the plus side, the rideshare pickup is convenient (right in front of the hotel) and its proximity to Aria does provide interesting dining and gambling (poker room) options. Oh and the beds and temp control are super comfy.

On our first evening, we headed out to the Venetian - to purchase a tournament ticket for the next days' $400 Senior's event, and to dine at the Black Tap restaurant, a swank NY-based fancy burger and shakes outlet (while there is a two-hour wait for a table with no advance reservations taken, we were able to snag a spot at the bar). Their menu is quite good (if you like fancy Burgers - I had a bison one), and a gal sitting next to us ordered this, just to send the picture to her mom back home:
















Day 1 

Monday, I headed to the Venetian and sat at the Seniors (50 and over) event. The notes below - until Day 4 - are of interest to poker players only :)

The structure was quite decent, starting at 30K chips, 100/100 blinds with 30 minute levels. Re-entries were allowed up to the end of level 8. All said, there were 181 entries, creating a prize pool of $60K with $16.6K for first spot.

My table seemed fairly soft, with most of the players playing unbalanced, predictable games and often overplaying made hands. Yet, in these early levels one has to make some hands to chip up - these guys are tough to bluff and often don't understand bluffing lines- consequently over-defending on some boards they should be folding under pressure.

At level 3 with blinds at 200/300, I had a healthy-ish stack of 35,000 and this hand played:

8-handed, UTG (first to act) called, UTG1 called, and I looked down at KJo in the HJ position. I decided to get a bit out of line and raised to 1500 (5x the blind). They both called and this created a pot of 5000 chips.

The flop came J92 with two spades, I did not hold a spade.

It checked around. I should be missing this board a lot and so from a theoretical standpoint, a check back or a small bet make sense here. In-game, my thoughts were that I will also not be denying value from any two-spade holding, many of which will have me in poor shape. I also like to protect my check-back range, much of which wants to realize its equity as cheaply as possible on this board texture. However, the counter argument is that a pair of J wants to fold out all Ax, Kx, Qx holdings which all have decent equity on this board. And so I should be betting at least part of the time.

The turn came an offsuit 8. UTG led for 2500 and UTG1 called. I decided to call, balancing the facts that the turn had reduced my equity, with the 5:1 pot odds I was being laid. The pot was now 12,500.

The river was one of the worst cards in the deck for me, an offsuit Q. Any Tx now made a straight, alongside the other holdings now upgraded to two-pair or a better top pair.

UTG bet 4,000, UTG1 jammed and I folded. UTG1 claimed he had QT, which I found believable. I assumed UTG had KQ, QJ, Q9 or Q8. 

Anyway, that's what these guys do - limp/call offsuit broadway hands, hoping to hit a hand. Lesson learned: raise them with premium, then some weak and some implied-odds holdings when deep enough (like suited Aces) - not with KJo which is likely in the middle of their limping ranges. AQo+ is probably the threshold for "premium" here. Also bear in mind, in tournaments were are often too shallow to play implied-odds hands effectively -- but in this spot with 100BB effective, I think that would be ok.

A couple of hours into the event (I was not moved from my table), an elderly gentleman sat to my immediate right. After a few moments passed, one of the other players said hey guys, we have a true poker legend at our table, this is Jack Mclelland, a poker hall of famer. I struck up a bit of a conversation with him and through the internet, later learned that his nomination had been due to his contribution to the game as the Bellagio tournament director and trailblazer of the Tournament Directors Association. Apparently, he had also been ill in recent years and required a heart transplant. He did seem gaunt compared to his online photos, and at 71 he appeared to me as much older. Regardless, he struck me as a gentleman, whom it was nice to meet. We played a hand heads-up, on which I folded the river to a clear value bet against my A6 suited that missed all of its draws.

Beyond that, the Seniors event did not go exceptionally well for me. I picked up hands here and there, but not enough to survive the crucial middle stages, where most players are short stacked and you have to win "flips". I made it to level 11, was moved to a new table, and busted there, shoving my 9 BB stack with K6o in the small blind and being called by AQ.

Out of the tournament with lots of time to spare (at 3:30 PM), I decided to join the 1/3 cash game. I was seated at a fairly wild table, with an Asian lady to my left routinely making 10x preflop and flop bets, and a younger guy to my right also eager to get stacks in. This was going to be fun!

In one fun hand, I raised A2 from the button and the lady called from the SB. The flop came A72 and I managed to get stacks in against her A8! That hand alone yielded me over $200. By the end of cash play that day, I hade made back most of my tournament buyin - $315.

Wrapping up, I was going to bring dinner back to the room. I ordered from Black Tap, headed back to Vdara and we enjoyed a good meal with wine in our decently equipped suite (despite all its shortcomings).

Day 2

Tuesday was going to be a "rinse and repeat", this time entering a regular (non-seniors) $400 Venetian deepstack with the same structure as the previous day. Well-rested, the earlier stages of this event went decently for me and I had a 38,500 stack coming into level 4, at 200/300/300 blinds.

That is, until I open raised to 1,100 with AKo in the SB (folded to me) and the BB - a nice young British chap I had been chatting with (living in the British Virgin Islands) - 3bet to 3,500. I jammed into his 11,200 stack behind, and lost to QQ. 

That hand, although not putting me in the danger zone, had an effect on my chip accumulation potential further in the event. After a few more levels, I was able to scratch my way up to 35,000 at Level 8, with blinds at 600/1200/1200. 

Then this hand:

Lojack (4th from the button) raised to 2800, Hijack (3rd from the button) called, and looking down at 66 on the button, I decided to call. The blinds folded and we had a pot of 11,400.

The flop came QJ9 with two spades. It checked around.

The turn was a K of spades. It checked to me. With low equity, I decided to lay in a bluff of 6,000, just over half pot. I was representing a flush that had just "got there". To my astonishment, they folded and I, for the first time, made it past the 40K threshold.

Regrettably, after that hand, I had to fold AK on the turn, when it flopped A high all clubs (me without a club), and an opponent jammed the turn, showing KQcc after I and another player had folded.

No other lighting struck for the remainder of the event, and I ended up exiting at Level 10, flipping AQdd against JJ and losing.

I repeated the Venetian cash game experience, but this time my table was seated mostly 1/3 regs nitting it up, some short-stacking. I found it to be frustrating and after our table broke and I got onto another rough table, ending up with a loss of $490. Honestly, a good chunk of that loss was due to poor and/or passive play on my end.

So, to this point I was down $975 on the trip (including the $800 tourney buyins). Not a great start, but I held hope for the remaining cash games I was going to play on the following days. And, I had always assumed that I was probably not going to cash the tournaments - an average player will cash a tournament about 15% of the time.

Back in the room, we decided to order from a Mediterranean outlet via Doordash, and indeed our hopes were "dashed". The order, originally slated to arrive around 8:30pm, kept on being pushed out and had about 3 delivery drivers changed, before it eventually arrived an hour late. The food was soggy and undercooked. My beef skewers were literally raw. We got back part of our Doordash order cost, but overall it cooled us off of deliveries, in particular using that app (it was our second bad experience with them). 

Day 3

Wednesday, I was done with tournaments. I woke a bit later and hit the Aria gym, fairly well equipped with friendly staff who hand you a towel and water bottle when you walk in. I then sat down to play cash at the Aria poker room, and although it can be tough to get into the 1/3 game with their long wait lists, I was able to get started on a 1/3 table at 1:40 pm.

The session was a bit up and down, with no hands really worth sharing. One general mistake I made, was to open with mid-range but implied odds hands like A8ss in middle position, then get 3bet from early position and call. With approx. 100 BB deep, these implied odds hands do not play well as a call even in position, and in the 3bet-call instance, SB had AK which profited some more from me when an Ace hit the flop.

The session ended minus $20 and I headed to the room at 4:15, to grab a quick drink with Tali at the Vdara's lounge and then rest a bit before that evening's planned event - meeting Persuadeo (Kris Murray) and another friend for dinner, and then playing the Sahara 2/3 game that he helps organize.

I headed out towards Sahara, in time to arrive for our 6:15pm dinner reservation at Bazaar Meats. This would be my first visit to the renovated Sahara, occupying a north-strip and somewhat distant location from the strip's "center of gravity". Kris and Ritti (the friend) showed up and after a few minutes, we were seated. The restaurant is apparently a new and upcoming top-tier establishment, offering a meat-and seafood oriented menu with a variation on modern chef restaurant themes, like sharing all plates and menus designed for 2, 3 or 4 people. They try to push the "chef menus" at exorbitant prices, but we stuck to our guns and ordered a la carte items that we chose. Being neither restaurant critic or serious foodie, while I can't do the place justice suffice to say that the starters - oysters, beef tartare tacos, and fried mushrooms (?) then the main courses of lamb and steak - were top shelf. Kris had to leave a bit early to start the cash game (or at least be there in time so that it isn't disbanded); and with Ritti and I wrapping up the meal, I left actually craving some more of their food.

Sitting at the Sahara game: the newly renovated Sahara is itself a gem and their cardroom is - bar none - the most luxurious I've seen. Everything - from the tables to the seats, cards, chips, dealing staff, floor - is top notch. It is uncrowded and the players all appreciate the environment. Kris himself - to those who don't know him - is a Seattle expat whom I met years ago playing in his UW-district home game. Today, he is a coach and entrepreneur who has also ventured to organize a semi-private cash game at Sahara. Although technically not a "private game organizer" (that would imply his taking a rake), he does ensure its smooth running and has been able to work with the Sahara staff to establish its ground rules. One of them is a $5 half-hourly time rake - a vast advantage over the usual casino rakes.

This week, the game had been moved from Thursday to Wednesday night due to another cardroom obligation, and some of the players who had been in line to play, pulled out for various reasons. We started the game with 4 players, and ended up with 5 until my departure at 12:30 am.

The min buyin to this game is $600 or 200BB (blinds are 2/3), and I did that. Since there are often straddles, a $10 straddle turns $600 into a 60BB effective stack and so not ideal for this table. So I probably should have entered with at least $1K. Anyway, within a few orbits, I managed to plough my stack into Ritti's, my QQ losing to his AA. At that point I was not really tilted, but thinking ok - I will have to play some really good poker and get lucky if I am to recover from this spot.

I rebought for $700 and shortly thereafter, started to pick up some hands. I also observed that one of the players was pushing me around with large bets on a pretty wide range of hands - he was playing most pots - and did some effective bluff catching against him. 

In this game I did not record my hands, but starting hitting sets and powerful top pair hands that were paid off. A couple of new players arrived, one departed, and the game started to become more "fun" and active. At around midnight, my stack having grown to ~$2,200, I started to really feel tired and let the group know I'll be departing at the half hour. My cash out was $2,545, up $1,245 for the session. Although this was my best-ever cash result, Kris was of the opinion (shared later in a chat) that I should have profited $2.5K+ in it; and he's likely correct since I took nitty lines in spots I should have been getting stacks in. Anyway, this was a learning experience for me - the largest cash game I had ever played - and I didn't feel like I was quite rolled for it; not so much in "life money" terms but in terms of the amounts I was willing to risk playing my hobby. 

Day 5

Thursday was going to be a relaxing day, ending with dinner in downtown LV. I took a few laps at the Aria's pool - not really getting a great workout in the overly hot and crowded place - but enough to get myself moving for the day. I am (sort of) a healthy-semi-athletic type who makes sure to get some sort of gym routine done almost every day. I am also a keto-diet follower, trying to avoid the diabetic experience that others in my family went through.

For brunch, we discussed going out but Tali convinced me to order in, this time from a better-looking Mediterranean joint via Uber Eats. That turned out quite well (Shakshuka anyone? - look it up if you haven't had it). I then headed down to the Aria again to play cash, this time 2/5 with a $1K buyin, emboldened by the previous night's cash game. 

The table was loaded with LV regs and tourists playing tightly. Soon after the start of play, I got into this spot and played it perhaps poorly preflop and then decently post-flop (at least in my mind):  I opened in UTG to $15 with A6cc,  the button raised to $40 and I called, pot size now $80. The flop came 8c 7x 5c. I checked, he bet $60 and I called, creating a pot of $200. The turn came 5x and he bet $125. I decided that with my robust equity (a flush draw plus OESD) and his overcards /overpairs range, this will be a great spot to raise; and so made it $300 and he called (pot now was $800). The river came a 3x, whiffing all of my draws, but since on the turn I was repping a trips plus hand, I decided to jam. I moved towards my chips and he insta-mucked. (Footnote: I modeled this hand in GTO+ and given the action and betting options presented, in my spot it check/calls the turn and check/folds the river. However, these results are highly sensitive to assumed ranges).

The remainder of the session was up and down with typical flop misses, then a win with an overpair, then some more flop misses. I cashed out after 3.5 hours with a $125 profit.

While I was playing poker, Tali headed to a hair salon and was caught outdoors in one of Vegas' infamous Monsoon downpours. Within seconds she was drenched, but the ladies at the Salon took good care of her and even proffered her with an umbrella for the way back.

Towards the evening, we headed downtown to have dinner at Carson's kitchen. Carson's is a middle-brow, inexpensive local joint, serving excellent locally sourced food and frequented by a young, local Vegas crowd. Definitely off the "tourist-trap" path common to Vegas restaurants, we have turned this into one of our go-to spots. While we enjoyed our meal, I couldn't help but notice that the place - partially by design - is quite noisy and unsuitable for a relaxed conversation. The tables are mostly long and shared by multiple parties. So, if you plan on going, be aware of that fact. 

After dinner, and still being fairly early at 9-ish pm, we decided to stroll through the "Fremont experience" and do some people watching. Here's one fun nugget I picked up there (to be clear, I do not support the message):


Fremont street also has live music shows and we enjoyed a cover hard-rock band named "Alter Ego" for about a half hour. They played standards such as Doobie Brothers' "Listen to the Music" and Blue Oyster Cult's "Don't Fear the Reaper" (Tali's favorite). We then checked out some of the shops and ended the evening traipsing through the 4 Queens casino to its Uber pickup spot. 

Next day (Friday), our trip home went smoothly without incident, and we were back home in time to enjoy the rest of the weekend, back in our pleasant summer weather and clean air. 

I don't know when I'll be back in Vegas, but will look forward to playing the Sahara game again in the future if and when I do. 








Friday, June 30, 2017

Toiling in the Dark - Part 1

It's a nice and sunny June Friday in Seattle as my wife Tali and I make our way to the airport from our home town of Issaquah, 18 miles away. Our Lyft driver is interested in our destination and in response to "Vegas", a discussion of its current heat wave ensues. Ironic, I think, as I've been long yearning to escape our seemingly endless pseudo-spring with its grey and damp climate, only to fall into a boiling furnace.

The airport is the usual summer zoo of manic families and confused elderly travelers, mulling around in disorderly fashion and clogging the concourses. Even at the TSA precheck security line, people seem clueless about what they should be removing. I remark to Tali that the Vegas crowd should be especially merry and repulsive today.

After a quick lounge visit (courtesy of an expensive AMEX Platinum card membership), we proceed to the gate and hear an agent summon us to the desk. There is a pleasant young couple, seated separately in our row, and we are asked to agree to seat changes to accommodate them. Sure, we say, as long as we sit together. So the changes are made. As I eye the male, something tells me we are headed to the same event (more on that next).

In flight, as I get up to the toilet, Tali and the girl from above-mentioned couple, chat and figure out that both their husbands are going to play poker at the WSOP. As i return, she says he's playing a "deepstack" and I say, cool, I'm playing "monster stack". Aha, she says, I think that's it. Eric, is that the event you're playing? The response is affirmative. A chat ensues, whereby I identify a fellow weekend warrior type who wants to take a shot at luck. To the unfamiliar, our event is a $1,500 buyin multi-day poker tournament, attracting over 6,000 entrants with a first prize of over $1M. Even a "small" five-figure cash for a top 100 finish would do wonders for my poker bankroll, allowing me to venture into larger cash games on a regular basis, really the primary purpose of this trip.

Vegas more than fulfills the promise of its heat wave, and luckily I stop by the Starbucks stand for a Venti Ice Coffee before venturing out to the scorching 115 degree pavement. 
We stand for 10 minutes in the inferno until a rental car shuttle arrives for the very long drive to the rental car center. One wonders whether Vegas's town elders had cleverly planned this center to be particularly distant, for the indirect benefit of its taxi and limo operators.

We stay at an offsite Marriott in the convention center area. This is predicated on the idea to relax away from the crowds when not playing poker. Tali, ever supportive, had agreed to come along for a couple of nights and we thus end up in a decent suite. After arrival, our errands include shopping for in-room groceries and signing up for the Sunday flight of the Monster Stack at the Rio casino. Completing those two errands consumes our entire afternoon. Getting around in Vegas these days is a time consuming affair, with the long red-light waits even off strip, and locating a decent grocery store in the vicinity is not an easy endeavor. Healthy living is apparently not the mainstay of this town.

For dinner, we decide to go to the Fremont area of downtown, where new and affordable eateries have been popping up as an alternative to the over-priced and hyped "strip" casino dining venues. On Google maps, I locate Carson Kitchen, a small chef restaurant with modern American cuisine offerings. It doesn't take reservations, and upon arrival at approx. 7:30 pm we are given a 40 minute wait time, or an alternative of hanging out at the roof patio bar until spots free up. We happily take the bar option and enjoyed cocktails there, albeit the 8 pm temp is still 108 degrees and the bartenders are distinctly unhappy; one of them remarks that this seemed a good idea in April.  

Once seated, the meal itself is impressive. Not a bona fide foodie, I won't go into details of the menu but recommend that the interested inspect their website's menu. However, seated on a common table, there is a group of people to our side and opposite Tali, amongst them a lady whom she claims is giving us the "evil eye". A bad omen for poker, I thought. At some point, Tali stares back at the lady and fake-smiles her into oblivion so that she would stop her evil-eye business.

Saturday passes in non-poker activities, which well suits my plans. Relaxation from a hard work week in the East Coast includes heading out to the Orleans cinema to watch the silly (and fun) Wonder woman film. The cinema itself is one of these newly tricked out sofa-style venues, and while the crowd enjoys it, they still think that attending a cinema gives them the inalienable right to leave their crap strewn around the place when they leave.

Sunday, the big day. I awake at 8 AM and head to the gym, preparing physically and mentally for a 10 to 12 hour day of intensive poker play (assuming I survive it). Then, at 9:15 I head out to the Rio on my own, Tali planning to depart for home later that day. I arrive and suck in the WSOP atmosphere - hundreds of players in the hallways, many (like myself) with backpacks. Loud conversations of bad beats and failed bluffs reach my ears, as I make my way to the Amazon room, where play will commence at 10 AM. No major celebrity sightings though, unlike last year when I had sighted luminaries like Seidel and Galfond in the hallway (Seidel being even taller and thinner than I imagined).

I am the first to arrive at the table, and as people start filing in, I try to see if I recognize known players, but none come the way of my table. I had played this event in 2015, and survived to Day 2 only to bust with a short stack. This time, I resolved to "open up" my game somewhat and be less tight-passive.

The structure of Monster stack is pretty deep and slow. Players get 15,000 chips and play starts at 25/50, with 300 BB. Levels are one hour, allowing patient players the opportunity to be selective in their game and the impatient ones, the opportunity to steal small pots and/or punt off their stacks early on. I belong to the patient category, with deviations as seen appropriate.

As play starts, I am happy to see no famous (or infamous) pros at my table and by play styles, I conclude that this is going to be a passive group, at least for the first few levels when nobody wants to bust early.

My first hand played, I am quietly proud of, using a particular board runout to my advantage.
At 25/50, 15,000 stacks, the cutoff, Button and small blind all limp to me in the big blind. 
I look down at 75cc and check.
The flop is K86 rainbow (pot size: 200)
It goes check/check/150/fold/call/fold (I am the caller). (pot size: 500)
The turn is a 3.
I bet 250, Villian raises to 600 and I call. (pot size: 1700)
River is an Ad with no possible flushes. 
I bet 1000 and Villian folds. 
I have just executed a nice bluff, leveraging a "scary" river card to represent a winning hand when my flush draw misses.

Play continues on and I am able to play 3-4 hands at this level.
At the second level (50/100), I play a hand out of position with AQ and am forced to fold when the runout is low cards and a J appears on the turn. 

My stack is at 15,700 when this key hand unfolds:
I am UTG with 77 and bet 300.
A seemingly tight passive lady in the CO position raises to 600. The button, having doubled up in a prior spot is on a bathroom break, and so she is the effective button. The blinds fold and I call.
The flop is A75 rainbow. (pot size: 1350)
I check, she bets 600. I debate whether to raise or just call with my flopped set, and decide to try and extract more value from this hand by calling and keeping her in with weak Aces and lower pairs.
The turn is a Q (pot size: 2550).
Check, she bets 1500. Everything is proceeding according to plan, and I call. As well, in case I am behind QQ and AA, I don't want to stack off at this early stage.
The river is a 3 (pot size: 5550).
I check, she bets 1500 and I 3bet to 3500, wanting more from my set but not really putting stacks in play. She calls and I open my hand. To my amazement and disappointment, she shows QQ! Wow, I think, I've just dodged a bullet.

*** August 2022 edit: this hand needs to be re-analyzed. ***

Preflop
: CO's 3Bet sizing of 600 is terrible and typical of tight-passive players not knowing what to do with premiums. To me, it should scream strength and my just-call is mandatory.

Flop
: On the A75 flop, the rationale of "calling and keeping her in with weak Aces and lower pairs" is typical of 2017 pre-solver thinking, and not very good thinking at that. I think Jonathan Little was my main tournament influencer at that point (boo!!). It's actually counter to our incentives. My incentive having flopped middle set is to get stacks in by the river. CO being tight-passive, is not going to get me there on her own. Opening with a check is what I will do with 100% of my range, but when she bets, I need to get a check-raise in. Granted, my CR value range is very narrow (A7 suited, A5 suited, 77, 55) and I never have AA in my preflop open/calling range. Also note that this player type will almost always lay down the QQ in the face of that 3Bet and I would have won the pot; proving that even a hand as strong as a middle set still wants some equity denial.


Turn: As played with the flop check/call, I should still C/R here. Whether or not to stack off can be a decision point if she jams - and with her passivity she's only jamming nutted hands, perhaps not even AQ.

River: Springing the river 3Bet was fine, but it should have been larger for value extraction from AK, AQ. 


GTO+ Solver output: 
Iteration 1: playing at equilibrium with no node locking.
Working with a modified UTG open/call small 3B range of 8.75% (116 combos) and a tight button 3B range of 3.85% or 51 combos:

Flop
: I (being OOP) check flop 93% (effectively all the time). She (IP) bets only 50% of the time and with QQ she mostly checks. If she does bet, given two sizing choices of 45% pot and 75% pot she will opt for the smaller size that she did.
When she bets 600, I mostly raise with 77, to 2150 and she folds. I do have a 42% calling range though.

Turn: When I call flop as played: 
On the Q turn, I check my entire range. With her QQ she is betting a larger sizing of 1900 80% of the time and checking the rest of the time (I also gave her the 1500 option).
When she bets, I just call with 77.

River: On the river, I check, she bets large (4800 not 1500) and I fold.

Conclusion: The solver never takes the line that my opponent did. With a set of QQ, it bets larger on both turn and river. Given the extreme tightness of her preflop 3B range, it has me folding a hand as strong as 77 to a large-ish (80% pot) river bet.

Iteration 2: playing with opponent node locking.
This iteration is tailored to exploit my opponent's passive tendencies. In the original run, my EV (expected value) with 77 on this flop is 2272, with a pot of 1350. It's pretty rare to have an EV much larger than the pot size! 

A flop node-lock representing tight-passive behavior looks something like:
- Bet 1000 with AA, AK, AQ.
- Bet 600 with KK, QQ.
- Check back with JJ, TT.

Running the solver with these settings, yields me a flop EV of 4558. That's a ridiculously large one, due to opponent's poor play.
In this configuration, I check/raise the flop to 2100 100% of the time. 
The solver now has her calling half the time with KK, QQ (the only hands that bet 600). Now I instead node locked her into a fold in this spot. 
Now my flop EV goes to 3715 - still very high, but somewhat lower than the first node-lock only, because when she folds KK-QQ 100% to my flop C/R, I lose some expected value.

Conclusion: Against a tight-passive fish, the flop is a mandatory check-raise on my part. I should be stacking off against AA and winning a nice pot against everything else.

*** End August 2022 edit ***

At this point, I'm left with 9500 chips or 95 BBs. Still lots of play! But I have a premonition that things are not going to go well for me on this day.

At the next level, blinds are 75/150, antes 25. I am able to work my stack up to 11,000 when this hand occurrs. This (I think) is my major misstep (the 77 vs QQ loss considered to be a cooler, not misstep).

I pick up AhQc in the cutoff and bet 400. The player to my left, a competent (possible pro) 30-ish guy, calls on the button and the blinds fold.
The flop is 954 with one heart (pot size: 1275 with antes, we are 10 handed)
I check, he bets 700, I decide to call. My plan is to win with any A, Q and to bluff any K, J, perhaps T that hit a later street.
Turn is a 3h. (Pot size: 2675)
Check/ 1500 / call with the same plan. This is an optimistic call, since I may now be drawing dead against hands like 76, A2, sets of 44, 55, 99.
River is a 6d. (pot size: 5675)
I look at the board for a few seconds and decide that it's scary enough to bluff. I lead out for 2000. This mimics a value hand that I might be betting a hand like TT+ with. He thinks for a bit, murmurs to himself, and ends up calling, showing 98 offsuit.

I conclude my bluff may have been well timed, but surely too small. if I had made it 4000+, Villian would have been hard pressed to call. I had targeted the correct player type, an observant and balanced type, definitely not a calling station fish. In retrospect, a turn lead or c/r repping A2xx or 76xx would also have been sweet.

After this hand, I am left with 6400 chips and while still viable with over 30 BB, in jeopardy and hamstrung compared to my opponents. From this point onward, I cannot play implicit odds type hands effectively, since I am not getting correct pot odds. I am limited to finding value with large pairs, broadway cards and the occasional "blind special" hand that people will limp into when I am in the blinds with a weak holding that happens to flop well. 

Another hand that plays out to the river, I hold TT and fold a low card board with a Jack on the river, when there is a shove, and a player behind me who ends up calling. The winner shows JJ and I am "saved" again.

But clearly, this is not my day. I am on the wrong side of almost every significant pot and, in the over-used parlance of poker pros, can't get anything going.

I nurse my short stack until the middle of the 5th level and head back to my room in mid-afternoon with a pulsating headache and heartache. I decide to take a rest, get refreshed, and get back into the fighting pits the next day for another event. More on that in my next post!